Gimnasia L.P. vs Belgrano Cordoba preview
In the fixture between Gimnasia L.P. and Belgrano Cordoba, the 1X2 probabilities show Gimnasia L.P. at 44%, draw at 29%, and Belgrano Cordoba at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with an 11% chance. Gimnasia L.P. has a higher expected goals figure at 1.65 compared to Belgrano Cordoba's 0.94, suggesting they may dominate the match.
However, both teams to score stands at 50%, indicating that Belgrano Cordoba could find the net. Recent form shows Gimnasia L.P. with three wins and three draws in their last six matches, while Belgrano Cordoba has two wins and four losses in the same timeframe. This could impact the outcome, making it less predictable.
Gimnasia L.P. vs Belgrano Cordoba: model vs market
| Source | Gimnasia L.P. | Draw | Belgrano Cordoba |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 27% | 20% |
| Market | 42% | 29% | 29% |
| Published | 44% | 29% | 27% |
| Edge | +3% | -1% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.65 vs 0.94.
- The market prices Gimnasia L.P. below our published probability: +2.9 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.33, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Gimnasia L.P. vs Belgrano Cordoba odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Gimnasia L.P., 7 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gimnasia L.P. | 2.47 | 2.25 | -0.23 |
| Draw | 3.24 | 3.20 | -0.04 |
| Belgrano Cordoba | 2.82 | 3.20 | +0.38 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Gimnasia L.P. and Belgrano Cordoba expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.59
- Attack rating (Gimnasia L.P. / Belgrano Cordoba)
- 1.42 / 0.97
- Defence rating (Gimnasia L.P. / Belgrano Cordoba)
- 1.06 / 1.01
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Gimnasia L.P. vs Belgrano Cordoba score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Gimnasia L.P. goals. Columns: Belgrano Cordoba goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Gimnasia L.P. vs Belgrano Cordoba goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Gimnasia L.P. vs Belgrano Cordoba
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gimnasia L.P. | 44% | 2.25 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.49 | |
| Belgrano Cordoba | 27% | 3.71 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.09 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 1.99 |
| No | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Gimnasia L.P. or draw) | 73% | 1.37 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Belgrano Cordoba) | 56% | 1.80 | |
| Handicap -1 | Gimnasia L.P. win by 2+ | 29% | 3.41 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Gimnasia L.P. and Belgrano Cordoba recent form
Gimnasia L.P.
3W 3D 0L
Belgrano Cordoba
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Gimnasia L.P. at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-3-4
- Win rate
- 53%
- Goals for / match
- 1.53
- Goals against / match
- 1.13
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 15
- They have won 17 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 8 penalties (62%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Belgrano Cordoba away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-7-3
- Win rate
- 44%
- Goals for / match
- 0.94
- Goals against / match
- 0.72
- Clean sheets
- 10 of 18
- They have won 17 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 16 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Gimnasia L.P. at home only, Belgrano Cordoba away only.
Gimnasia L.P. vs Belgrano Cordoba head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Gimnasia L.P. 3 · draws 1 · Belgrano Cordoba 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Belgrano Cordoba | 0-1 | Gimnasia L.P. | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2024-08-26 | Belgrano Cordoba | 0-1 | Gimnasia L.P. | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2023-04-16 | Gimnasia L.P. | 0-2 | Belgrano Cordoba | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2018-11-02 | Belgrano Cordoba | 2-0 | Gimnasia L.P. | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2017-11-25 | Belgrano Cordoba | 2-0 | Gimnasia L.P. | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2016-12-10 | Gimnasia L.P. | 1-1 | Belgrano Cordoba | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2015-05-30 | Belgrano Cordoba | 0-1 | Gimnasia L.P. | Liga Profesional Argentina |
Other Clausura - 16 fixtures
- Aldosivi vs River Plate — team news & stats 2026-11-05
- Barracas Central vs Racing Club 2026-11-06
- Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield 2026-11-06
- Independiente v Deportivo Riestra — match page 2026-11-06
- San Lorenzo v Platense — match page 2026-11-06
- Banfield v Atletico Tucuman — match page 2026-11-07
- Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin 2026-11-07
- Talleres Cordoba vs Estudiantes L.P. — team news & stats 2026-11-07
Before and after this match
- Gimnasia L.P., previous: Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto v Gimnasia L.P. analysis
- Belgrano Cordoba, previous: Belgrano Cordoba v Barracas Central analysis