Updated

Liga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 16

Barracas Central vs Racing Club

· Estadio Claudio Chiqui Tapia, Barracas· Referee Dario Herrera

Alin prediction Barracas Central to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Barracas CentralDrawRacing Club
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 1.07.
  • RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Best market odds
Barracas Central2.20 Draw3.20 Racing Club3.60

Price as of

Expected return at 2.20: +0.1% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 9 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Barracas Central vs Racing Club preview

In the match between Barracas Central and Racing Club, the 1X2 probabilities show Barracas Central at 43%, while Racing Club sits at 28%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 10% chance according to our model. Barracas Central has an expected goals figure of 1.78, compared to Racing Club's 1.07.

Both teams to score stands at 56%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 54%. Barracas Central's recent form includes 3 wins and 2 draws, while Racing Club has 2 wins and 4 losses in their last 6 matches. A draw is a possibility, given the 30% probability, which could affect the overall outcome.

Barracas Central vs Racing Club: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBarracas CentralDrawRacing Club
Model53%26%22%
Market43%30%27%
Published46%29%26%
Edge+2%-1%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 1.07.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Barracas Central below our published probability: +2.4 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.20, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Barracas Central vs Racing Club odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Barracas Central, 7 snapshots since 2026-11-02.

Opened 2.61Now 2.18 -0.43
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Barracas Central2.612.18-0.43
Draw2.993.12+0.13
Racing Club2.903.50+0.60

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Barracas Central and Racing Club expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.78Barracas Central
1.07Racing Club
Total expected goals
2.85
Attack rating (Barracas Central / Racing Club)
1.15 / 1.11
Defence rating (Barracas Central / Racing Club)
1.06 / 1.34

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Barracas Central vs Racing Club score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.9% 5.1% 3.3% 1.2% 0.4% 1 9.2% 12.1% 5.9% 2.1% 0.7% 2 9.2% 9.8% 5.2% 1.9% 0.6% 3 5.4% 5.8% 3.1% 1.1% 0.4% 4+ 3.6% 3.9% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%

Rows: Barracas Central goals. Columns: Racing Club goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Barracas Central vs Racing Club goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 79%
Over 2.5 54%
Over 3.5 32%
Both teams to score
56%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Barracas Central vs Racing Club

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Barracas Central46%2.20
Draw29%3.45
Racing Club26%3.92
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.554%1.85
Under 2.546%2.18
Both teams to scoreYes56%1.80
No44%2.26
Double chance1X (Barracas Central or draw)74%1.34
12 (either side)71%1.41
X2 (draw or Racing Club)54%1.84
Handicap -1Barracas Central win by 2+30%3.31
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Barracas Central and Racing Club recent form

Barracas Central 3W 2D 1L
Racing Club 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Barracas Central at home

Record (W-D-L)
6-3-6
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
0.87
Clean sheets
5 of 15
  • They have won 11 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 11 of 31 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Racing Club away

Record (W-D-L)
5-4-8
Win rate
29%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.12
Clean sheets
6 of 17
  • They have won 10 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 33 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Barracas Central at home only, Racing Club away only.

Barracas Central vs Racing Club head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Barracas Central 1 · draws 3 · Racing Club 2.

Barracas CentralDrawsRacing Club
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-25Racing Club1-1Barracas CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
2025-07-12Racing Club0-1Barracas CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
2025-01-24Barracas Central1-3Racing ClubLiga Profesional Argentina
2024-11-06Barracas Central0-2Racing ClubLiga Profesional Argentina
2023-06-22Racing Club1-1Barracas CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
2022-08-06Barracas Central0-0Racing ClubLiga Profesional Argentina

Other Clausura - 16 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Barracas Central to win Predicted score 2 – 1 C Bet on Barracas Central
Our pick: Barracas Central to win 18+ Bet Now