Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra preview
Independiente faces Deportivo Riestra with a 51% chance of winning compared to 19% for the visitors. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs with a 19% probability. This suggests a tight match, but the low expected goals of 1.08 for Independiente and 0.61 for Deportivo Riestra indicate that scoring may be limited.
Independiente's recent form shows 2 wins and 3 draws in their last 5 matches, while Deportivo Riestra has struggled with 2 draws and 4 losses. The probabilities for Over 2.5 goals stand at just 24%, and both teams to score is at 31%. These figures suggest that while Independiente is favored, any unexpected performance from Deportivo Riestra could change the outcome.
Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra: model vs market
| Source | Independiente | Draw | Deportivo Riestra |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45% | 35% | 19% |
| Market | 58% | 27% | 16% |
| Published | 55% | 29% | 17% |
| Edge | -3% | +2% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.08 vs 0.61.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.65, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Independiente, 5 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente | 1.79 | 1.62 | -0.17 |
| Draw | 3.31 | 3.50 | +0.19 |
| Deportivo Riestra | 4.96 | 6.00 | +1.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Independiente and Deportivo Riestra expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.68
- Attack rating (Independiente / Deportivo Riestra)
- 0.79 / 0.58
- Defence rating (Independiente / Deportivo Riestra)
- 1.16 / 1.18
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Independiente goals. Columns: Deportivo Riestra goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 31%
- No goals (0–0)
- 20%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Independiente | 55% | 1.83 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.47 | |
| Deportivo Riestra | 17% | 6.05 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 24% | 4.20 |
| Under 2.5 | 76% | 1.31 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 31% | 3.20 |
| No | 69% | 1.45 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Independiente or draw) | 83% | 1.20 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Deportivo Riestra) | 45% | 2.20 | |
| Handicap -1 | Independiente win by 2+ | 19% | 5.19 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Independiente and Deportivo Riestra recent form
Independiente
1W 3D 2L
Deportivo Riestra
0W 3D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Independiente at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-5-5
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.27
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 15
- They have won 11 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Deportivo Riestra away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-6-9
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 15
- They have won 3 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They average 0.8 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 20 of 31 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Independiente at home only, Deportivo Riestra away only.
Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Independiente 2 · draws 1 · Deportivo Riestra 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | Deportivo Riestra | 2-0 | Independiente | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2025-11-10 | Deportivo Riestra | 0-1 | Independiente | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2025-04-28 | Independiente | 0-0 | Deportivo Riestra | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2024-10-06 | Independiente | 3-1 | Deportivo Riestra | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2024-03-15 | Deportivo Riestra | 1-0 | Independiente | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
Other Clausura - 16 fixtures
- Barracas Central vs Racing Club 2026-11-06
- Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield 2026-11-06
- San Lorenzo v Platense — match page 2026-11-06
- Banfield v Atletico Tucuman — match page 2026-11-07
- Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin 2026-11-07
- Talleres Cordoba vs Estudiantes L.P. — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Gimnasia M. vs Independ. Rivadavia — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Rosario Central vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto — team news & stats 2026-11-07
Before and after this match
- Independiente, previous: Defensa Y Justicia vs Independiente: odds and pick
- Deportivo Riestra, previous: Deportivo Riestra vs Talleres Cordoba prediction