Defensa Y Justicia vs Independiente preview
Defensa Y Justicia faces Independiente with a 47% chance to win compared to Independiente's 24%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 13% of the time according to our model. Defensa Y Justicia has scored an expected 1.78 goals, while Independiente has only 0.75.
However, the match could deviate from this prediction. Both teams to score stands at 45%, indicating a possibility that Independiente might find the net. Additionally, Defensa Y Justicia's recent form shows 4 wins in their last 6 matches, while Independiente has 3 wins in the same period. This could influence the outcome, making a draw or an Independiente victory feasible.
Defensa Y Justicia vs Independiente: model vs market
| Source | Defensa Y Justicia | Draw | Independiente |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63% | 24% | 12% |
| Market | 42% | 30% | 28% |
| Published | 47% | 29% | 24% |
| Edge | +5% | -1% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 0.66.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Defensa Y Justicia below our published probability: +5.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.34, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +9.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Defensa Y Justicia vs Independiente odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Defensa Y Justicia, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Defensa Y Justicia | 2.21 | 2.25 | +0.04 |
| Draw | 3.10 | 3.10 | +0.00 |
| Independiente | 3.40 | 3.30 | -0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Defensa Y Justicia and Independiente expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.44
- Attack rating (Defensa Y Justicia / Independiente)
- 1.34 / 0.80
- Defence rating (Defensa Y Justicia / Independiente)
- 0.92 / 1.16
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Defensa Y Justicia vs Independiente score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Defensa Y Justicia goals. Columns: Independiente goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Defensa Y Justicia vs Independiente goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 41%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Defensa Y Justicia vs Independiente
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Defensa Y Justicia | 47% | 2.13 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.48 | |
| Independiente | 24% | 4.11 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.26 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41% | 2.42 |
| No | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Defensa Y Justicia or draw) | 76% | 1.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Independiente) | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Handicap -1 | Defensa Y Justicia win by 2+ | 38% | 2.66 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Defensa Y Justicia and Independiente recent form
Defensa Y Justicia
4W 1D 1L
Independiente
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Defensa Y Justicia at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-6-3
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 0.93
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 15
- They have won 11 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
Independiente away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-5-5
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.19
- Goals against / match
- 1.12
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 16
- They have won 11 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Defensa Y Justicia at home only, Independiente away only.
Defensa Y Justicia vs Independiente head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Defensa Y Justicia 0 · draws 0 · Independiente 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Independiente | 3-1 | Defensa Y Justicia | Liga Profesional Argentina |
Other Clausura - 15 fixtures
- Huracan vs Tigre — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto vs Gimnasia L.P. 2026-10-30
- Racing Club v Aldosivi — match page 2026-10-31
- Sarmiento Junin vs Rosario Central 2026-10-31
- Deportivo Riestra v Talleres Cordoba — match page 2026-10-31
- Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Estudiantes L.P. v Instituto Cordoba — match page 2026-11-01
- Boca Juniors vs River Plate — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Defensa Y Justicia, previous: Talleres Cordoba vs Defensa Y Justicia prediction
- Independiente, previous: Independiente vs Boca Juniors: odds and pick