Lanus vs Gimnasia M. preview
In the Liga Profesional Argentina, Lanus faces Gimnasia M. with a 54% probability for a Lanus win compared to Gimnasia M.'s 17%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 16% chance of occurring. Lanus has shown solid recent form, recording three wins in their last five matches, while Gimnasia M. has struggled, losing four of their last five.
While the model suggests a low chance for Over 2.5 goals at 36% and a 39% chance for both teams to score, the outcome could shift if Gimnasia M. finds a way to improve their attacking play. The expected goals are 1.45 for Lanus and only 0.69 for Gimnasia M., indicating a potential struggle for the visitors.
Lanus vs Gimnasia M.: model vs market
| Source | Lanus | Draw | Gimnasia M. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54% | 29% | 17% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 54% | 29% | 17% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.45 vs 0.69.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Lanus and Gimnasia M. expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.15
- Attack rating (Lanus / Gimnasia M.)
- 1.13 / 1.00
- Defence rating (Lanus / Gimnasia M.)
- 0.77 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lanus vs Gimnasia M. score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lanus goals. Columns: Gimnasia M. goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lanus vs Gimnasia M. goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 39%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lanus vs Gimnasia M.
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lanus | 54% | 1.84 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.43 | |
| Gimnasia M. | 17% | 6.02 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36% | 2.76 |
| Under 2.5 | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39% | 2.53 |
| No | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lanus or draw) | 83% | 1.20 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Gimnasia M.) | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lanus win by 2+ | 28% | 3.53 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Lanus and Gimnasia M. recent form
Lanus
4W 2D 0L
Gimnasia M.
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lanus at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-5-3
- Win rate
- 47%
- Goals for / match
- 1.13
- Goals against / match
- 0.73
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 15
- They have won 13 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gimnasia M. away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-9
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.73
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 15
- They have won 11 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Lanus at home only, Gimnasia M. away only.
Lanus vs Gimnasia M. head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Lanus 0 · draws 0 · Gimnasia M. 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | Gimnasia M. | 1-0 | Lanus | Liga Profesional Argentina |
Other Clausura - 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
- Lanus, previous: Banfield – Lanus, 2026-10-24
- Gimnasia M., previous: Gimnasia M. v Platense analysis