Union Santa Fe vs Estudiantes L.P. preview
Union Santa Fe faces Estudiantes L.P. with a 34% chance of winning compared to Estudiantes L.P.'s 36%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which aligns with expected goals of 1.13 for Union Santa Fe and 1.37 for Estudiantes L.P. This suggests a tight match, but the recent form shows Union Santa Fe struggling with 4 losses in their last 5 games, while Estudiantes L.P. has a mixed record with 2 draws and 1 win in their last 5.
The probability for Over 2.5 goals is 46%, and both teams to score stands at 52%. This indicates a potential for scoring, but the low expected goals could mean a low-scoring affair. If Union Santa Fe's form improves or they manage to capitalize on home advantage, the outcome could differ from the predictions.
Union Santa Fe vs Estudiantes L.P.: model vs market
| Source | Union Santa Fe | Draw | Estudiantes L.P. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30% | 29% | 41% |
| Market | 36% | 30% | 34% |
| Published | 34% | 30% | 36% |
| Edge | -2% | 0% | +2% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.83, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Union Santa Fe vs Estudiantes L.P. odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Estudiantes L.P., 7 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Santa Fe | 2.66 | 2.61 | -0.05 |
| Draw | 3.06 | 3.10 | +0.04 |
| Estudiantes L.P. | 2.75 | 2.75 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Union Santa Fe and Estudiantes L.P. expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.51
- Attack rating (Union Santa Fe / Estudiantes L.P.)
- 1.11 / 1.00
- Defence rating (Union Santa Fe / Estudiantes L.P.)
- 1.53 / 0.88
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Union Santa Fe vs Estudiantes L.P. score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Union Santa Fe goals. Columns: Estudiantes L.P. goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Union Santa Fe vs Estudiantes L.P. goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Union Santa Fe vs Estudiantes L.P.
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Union Santa Fe | 34% | 2.92 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.34 | |
| Estudiantes L.P. | 36% | 2.79 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.18 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.93 |
| No | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Union Santa Fe or draw) | 64% | 1.56 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or Estudiantes L.P.) | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Handicap -1 | Estudiantes L.P. win by 2+ | 20% | 5.03 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Union Santa Fe and Estudiantes L.P. recent form
Union Santa Fe
1W 1D 4L
Estudiantes L.P.
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Union Santa Fe at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-4-4
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.57
- Goals against / match
- 1.07
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 14
- They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Estudiantes L.P. away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-4-6
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 0.79
- Goals against / match
- 0.93
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 14
- They have won 13 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Union Santa Fe at home only, Estudiantes L.P. away only.
Union Santa Fe vs Estudiantes L.P. head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Union Santa Fe 1 · draws 0 · Estudiantes L.P. 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Estudiantes L.P. | 2-1 | Union Santa Fe | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2025-07-15 | Union Santa Fe | 1-0 | Estudiantes L.P. | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2025-01-25 | Estudiantes L.P. | 3-1 | Union Santa Fe | Liga Profesional Argentina |
Other Clausura - 14 fixtures
- Rosario Central vs Huracan 2026-10-25
- Aldosivi vs Belgrano Cordoba — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Independiente v Boca Juniors — match page 2026-10-25
- River Plate vs Racing Club — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Central Cordoba de Santiago v Velez Sarsfield — match page 2026-10-26
- Barracas Central vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 2026-10-26
- Instituto Cordoba vs Deportivo Riestra 2026-10-27
- Argentinos JRS vs Independ. Rivadavia 2026-10-27
Before and after this match
- Union Santa Fe, previous: Deportivo Riestra v Union Santa Fe analysis
- Estudiantes L.P., previous: Flamengo – Estudiantes L.P., 2026-10-23