FC Liefering vs Sturm Graz II preview
FC Liefering hosts Sturm Graz II with a 48% chance of winning according to the model. The expected goals suggest a high-scoring match, with FC Liefering at 2.86 and Sturm Graz II at 1.96. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the strong likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 86% and both teams to score at 81%.
However, the confidence grade is C, indicating uncertainty. Recent form shows FC Liefering with two losses in their last three matches, while Sturm Graz II has mixed results, including two draws. This inconsistency could impact the outcome, making it possible for the match to deviate from the predicted scoreline.
FC Liefering vs Sturm Graz II: model vs market
| Source | FC Liefering | Draw | Sturm Graz II |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57% | 18% | 25% |
| Market | 45% | 23% | 31% |
| Published | 48% | 22% | 30% |
| Edge | +11% | -5% | -6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.86 vs 1.96.
- The market prices FC Liefering below the model: +11.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.07, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
FC Liefering vs Sturm Graz II odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Liefering, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Liefering | 2.03 | 2.01 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 4.00 | 3.95 | -0.05 |
| Sturm Graz II | 2.92 | 2.91 | -0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Liefering and Sturm Graz II expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.82
- Attack rating (FC Liefering / Sturm Graz II)
- 1.30 / 1.19
- Defence rating (FC Liefering / Sturm Graz II)
- 1.27 / 1.45
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Liefering vs Sturm Graz II score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Liefering goals. Columns: Sturm Graz II goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Liefering vs Sturm Graz II goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 81%
- No goals (0–0)
- 1%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Liefering vs Sturm Graz II
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Liefering | 48% | 2.07 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.56 | |
| Sturm Graz II | 30% | 3.35 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 86% | 1.16 |
| Under 2.5 | 14% | 7.10 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 81% | 1.23 |
| No | 19% | 5.37 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Liefering or draw) | 70% | 1.43 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Sturm Graz II) | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Liefering win by 2+ | 38% | 2.61 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FC Liefering and Sturm Graz II recent form
FC Liefering
2W 1D 3L
Sturm Graz II
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Liefering at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game on the road against 1.7 at home.
Sturm Graz II away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 3.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Liefering at home only, Sturm Graz II away only.
FC Liefering vs Sturm Graz II head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: FC Liefering 1 · draws 1 · Sturm Graz II 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | Sturm Graz II | 0-1 | FC Liefering | 2. Liga |
| 2025-08-15 | FC Liefering | 2-2 | Sturm Graz II | 2. Liga |
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