First Vienna vs SKN ST. Polten preview
In the upcoming match between First Vienna and SKN ST. Polten, the model gives First Vienna a 51% chance to win, making them the favorites. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with an expected goals tally of 1.50 for First Vienna and 0.60 for SKN ST. Polten. However, the match could deviate from this prediction if SKN ST. Polten manages to score, as both teams to score has a probability of 36%.
First Vienna is in strong form, with five wins and a draw in their last six matches, while SKN ST. Polten has a mixed record of four wins and two losses in their recent games. The market suggests a 35% chance for Over 2.5 goals, indicating that while low-scoring is likely, there is still potential for more goals than expected.
First Vienna vs SKN ST. Polten: model vs market
| Source | First Vienna | Draw | SKN ST. Polten |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58% | 28% | 14% |
| Market | 48% | 25% | 27% |
| Published | 51% | 26% | 23% |
| Edge | +10% | +3% | -13% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.50 vs 0.60.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices First Vienna below the model: +10.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.95, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
First Vienna vs SKN ST. Polten odds movement
Median bookmaker price on First Vienna, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| First Vienna | 1.91 | 1.91 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.66 | 3.63 | -0.03 |
| SKN ST. Polten | 3.55 | 3.45 | -0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
First Vienna and SKN ST. Polten expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.11
- Attack rating (First Vienna / SKN ST. Polten)
- 1.29 / 0.77
- Defence rating (First Vienna / SKN ST. Polten)
- 0.61 / 0.77
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
First Vienna vs SKN ST. Polten score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: First Vienna goals. Columns: SKN ST. Polten goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
First Vienna vs SKN ST. Polten goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 36%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for First Vienna vs SKN ST. Polten
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | First Vienna | 51% | 1.98 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.84 | |
| SKN ST. Polten | 23% | 4.27 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35% | 2.84 |
| Under 2.5 | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 36% | 2.75 |
| No | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Double chance | 1X (First Vienna or draw) | 77% | 1.31 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or SKN ST. Polten) | 49% | 2.02 | |
| Handicap -1 | First Vienna win by 2+ | 31% | 3.20 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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First Vienna and SKN ST. Polten recent form
First Vienna
5W 1D 0L
SKN ST. Polten
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
First Vienna at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
SKN ST. Polten away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 6 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: First Vienna at home only, SKN ST. Polten away only.
First Vienna vs SKN ST. Polten head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: First Vienna 1 · draws 0 · SKN ST. Polten 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-20 | First Vienna | 2-1 | SKN ST. Polten | 2. Liga |
| 2025-08-15 | SKN ST. Polten | 2-1 | First Vienna | 2. Liga |
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