SV Kapfenberg vs Austria Vienna (Am) preview
SV Kapfenberg hosts Austria Vienna (Am) with a model 1X2 probability of 32% for a home win, 23% for a draw, and 45% for an away victory. The expected goals suggest a scoreline of 1-2, with a strong likelihood of Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score at 72%.
SV Kapfenberg's recent form shows three losses in their last five matches, while Austria Vienna (Am) has won four of their last six. The head-to-head record favors SV Kapfenberg slightly with five wins, but the current form and expected goals indicate a challenge for the home side. The confidence grade is C, reflecting uncertainty in the predictions.
SV Kapfenberg vs Austria Vienna (Am): model vs market
| Source | SV Kapfenberg | Draw | Austria Vienna (Am) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 23% | 45% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 32% | 23% | 45% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 1.70.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
SV Kapfenberg and Austria Vienna (Am) expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.72
- Attack rating (SV Kapfenberg / Austria Vienna (Am))
- 0.95 / 1.16
- Defence rating (SV Kapfenberg / Austria Vienna (Am))
- 1.35 / 1.18
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
SV Kapfenberg vs Austria Vienna (Am) score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: SV Kapfenberg goals. Columns: Austria Vienna (Am) goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
SV Kapfenberg vs Austria Vienna (Am) goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 72%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for SV Kapfenberg vs Austria Vienna (Am)
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | SV Kapfenberg | 32% | 3.10 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.35 | |
| Austria Vienna (Am) | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72% | 1.39 |
| Under 2.5 | 28% | 3.54 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72% | 1.39 |
| No | 28% | 3.54 | |
| Double chance | 1X (SV Kapfenberg or draw) | 55% | 1.81 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Austria Vienna (Am)) | 68% | 1.48 | |
| Handicap -1 | Austria Vienna (Am) win by 2+ | 26% | 3.86 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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SV Kapfenberg and Austria Vienna (Am) recent form
SV Kapfenberg
1W 0D 5L
Austria Vienna (Am)
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
SV Kapfenberg at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
Austria Vienna (Am) away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: SV Kapfenberg at home only, Austria Vienna (Am) away only.
SV Kapfenberg vs Austria Vienna (Am) head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: SV Kapfenberg 5 · draws 2 · Austria Vienna (Am) 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | Austria Vienna (Am) | 1-2 | SV Kapfenberg | 2. Liga |
| 2025-11-28 | SV Kapfenberg | 1-2 | Austria Vienna (Am) | 2. Liga |
| 2023-02-25 | SV Kapfenberg | 4-2 | Austria Vienna (Am) | 2. Liga |
| 2022-08-05 | Austria Vienna (Am) | 2-2 | SV Kapfenberg | 2. Liga |
| 2022-05-06 | SV Kapfenberg | 5-1 | Austria Vienna (Am) | 2. Liga |
| 2021-10-30 | Austria Vienna (Am) | 1-3 | SV Kapfenberg | 2. Liga |
| 2021-04-02 | Austria Vienna (Am) | 1-2 | SV Kapfenberg | 2. Liga |
| 2020-10-03 | SV Kapfenberg | 0-0 | Austria Vienna (Am) | 2. Liga |
| 2020-07-31 | SV Kapfenberg | 0-3 | Austria Vienna (Am) | 2. Liga |
| 2019-11-08 | Austria Vienna (Am) | 4-1 | SV Kapfenberg | 2. Liga |
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