Araz vs Zira preview
In the match between Araz and Zira, the 1X2 probabilities show Zira at 55%, compared to Araz's 21%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-2, which suggests Zira could take the win. Araz's recent form has been poor, with 5 losses and just 1 draw in their last 6 matches, while Zira has managed 1 win and 2 draws in the same period.
The expected goals indicate Araz at 1.07 and Zira at 1.85, reinforcing the likelihood of Zira scoring more. Both teams to score stands at 57%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 56%. However, Araz's potential for an upset could arise if they improve their form, making the outcome less predictable.
Araz vs Zira: model vs market
| Source | Araz | Draw | Zira |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21% | 25% | 55% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 21% | 25% | 55% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 1.07.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Araz and Zira expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.93
- Attack rating (Araz / Zira)
- 0.80 / 1.08
- Defence rating (Araz / Zira)
- 1.38 / 1.00
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Araz vs Zira score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Araz goals. Columns: Zira goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Araz vs Zira goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Araz vs Zira
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Araz | 21% | 4.84 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.04 | |
| Zira | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.78 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.77 |
| No | 43% | 2.31 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Araz or draw) | 45% | 2.20 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Zira) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| Handicap -1 | Zira win by 2+ | 32% | 3.13 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Araz and Zira recent form
Araz
0W 1D 5L
Zira
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Araz at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Zira away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Araz at home only, Zira away only.
Araz vs Zira head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Araz 1 · draws 1 · Zira 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Araz | 3-2 | Zira | Premyer Liqa |
| 2026-02-27 | Araz | 0-1 | Zira | Premyer Liqa |
| 2025-08-19 | Zira | 1-1 | Araz | Premyer Liqa |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Turan vs Sabah FA 2026-10-30
- Qabala vs Qarabag 2026-10-31
- Şamaxı FK v Neftchi Baku — match page 2026-11-01
- Kapaz vs Imisli FK — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Sumqayıt v Safa Baku — match page 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- Araz, previous: Araz v Qabala analysis
- Zira, previous: Zira vs Sumqayıt: odds and pick