Şamaxı FK vs Neftchi Baku preview
In the match between Şamaxı FK and Neftchi Baku, the 1X2 probabilities show Neftchi Baku at 56%, while Şamaxı FK is at 21%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 10% chance. The model also indicates a strong possibility of Over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams to score at 63%.
However, Şamaxı FK's recent form includes 3 wins in their last 6 matches, which could challenge Neftchi Baku's dominance. Neftchi Baku has been consistent, with 4 wins in their last 6 games. The head-to-head record shows Şamaxı FK has not won in their last 3 meetings, with 2 draws and 1 win for Neftchi Baku.
Şamaxı FK vs Neftchi Baku: model vs market
| Source | Şamaxı FK | Draw | Neftchi Baku |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21% | 23% | 56% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 21% | 23% | 56% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.09 vs 1.23.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Şamaxı FK and Neftchi Baku expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.33
- Attack rating (Şamaxı FK / Neftchi Baku)
- 1.08 / 1.52
- Defence rating (Şamaxı FK / Neftchi Baku)
- 1.11 / 0.85
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Şamaxı FK vs Neftchi Baku score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Şamaxı FK goals. Columns: Neftchi Baku goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Şamaxı FK vs Neftchi Baku goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Şamaxı FK vs Neftchi Baku
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Şamaxı FK | 21% | 4.74 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.40 | |
| Neftchi Baku | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.82 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.59 |
| No | 37% | 2.71 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Şamaxı FK or draw) | 44% | 2.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Neftchi Baku) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| Handicap -1 | Neftchi Baku win by 2+ | 35% | 2.89 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Şamaxı FK and Neftchi Baku recent form
Şamaxı FK
3W 2D 1L
Neftchi Baku
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Şamaxı FK at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Neftchi Baku away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 2.4 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 52% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Şamaxı FK at home only, Neftchi Baku away only.
Şamaxı FK vs Neftchi Baku head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Şamaxı FK 0 · draws 2 · Neftchi Baku 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Neftchi Baku | 3-0 | Şamaxı FK | Premyer Liqa |
| 2026-02-28 | Şamaxı FK | 2-2 | Neftchi Baku | Premyer Liqa |
| 2025-08-16 | Neftchi Baku | 1-1 | Şamaxı FK | Premyer Liqa |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Turan vs Sabah FA 2026-10-30
- Araz vs Zira — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Qabala vs Qarabag 2026-10-31
- Kapaz vs Imisli FK — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Sumqayıt v Safa Baku — match page 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- Şamaxı FK, previous: Imisli FK – Şamaxı FK, 2026-10-25
- Neftchi Baku, previous: Neftchi Baku vs Turan prediction