Neftchi Baku vs Kapaz preview
Neftchi Baku faces Kapaz with a 64% chance of winning, while Kapaz has only a 14% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 11% of the time according to our model. Neftchi Baku's expected goals stand at 1.66, compared to Kapaz's 0.99.
Both teams to score is at 52%, indicating a slight chance that both teams might find the net. Neftchi Baku's recent form shows 4 wins and 2 draws, while Kapaz has 5 wins and 1 draw. However, the confidence grade is C, suggesting uncertainty in the outcome.
Neftchi Baku vs Kapaz: model vs market
| Source | Neftchi Baku | Draw | Kapaz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 27% | 21% |
| Market | 68% | 20% | 12% |
| Published | 64% | 22% | 14% |
| Edge | -4% | +2% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 0.99.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.36, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -12.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Neftchi Baku vs Kapaz odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Neftchi Baku, 4 snapshots since 2026-11-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Neftchi Baku | 1.28 | 1.33 | +0.05 |
| Draw | 4.65 | 4.50 | -0.15 |
| Kapaz | 8.20 | 7.75 | -0.45 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Neftchi Baku and Kapaz expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.66
- Attack rating (Neftchi Baku / Kapaz)
- 1.56 / 0.85
- Defence rating (Neftchi Baku / Kapaz)
- 0.94 / 0.80
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Neftchi Baku vs Kapaz score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Neftchi Baku goals. Columns: Kapaz goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Neftchi Baku vs Kapaz goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Neftchi Baku vs Kapaz
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Neftchi Baku | 64% | 1.56 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.60 | |
| Kapaz | 14% | 7.10 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 1.98 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.92 |
| No | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Neftchi Baku or draw) | 86% | 1.16 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Kapaz) | 36% | 2.79 | |
| Handicap -1 | Neftchi Baku win by 2+ | 29% | 3.48 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Neftchi Baku and Kapaz recent form
Neftchi Baku
3W 3D 0L
Kapaz
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Neftchi Baku at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kapaz away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Neftchi Baku at home only, Kapaz away only.
Neftchi Baku vs Kapaz head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Neftchi Baku 7 · draws 1 · Kapaz 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Kapaz | 0-1 | Neftchi Baku | Premyer Liqa |
| 2026-02-15 | Kapaz | 1-3 | Neftchi Baku | Premyer Liqa |
| 2025-11-01 | Neftchi Baku | 5-1 | Kapaz | Premyer Liqa |
| 2025-05-04 | Neftchi Baku | 2-2 | Kapaz | Premyer Liqa |
| 2025-03-05 | Kapaz | 1-0 | Neftchi Baku | Premyer Liqa |
| 2025-02-28 | Neftchi Baku | 1-0 | Kapaz | Cup |
| 2025-02-05 | Kapaz | 0-2 | Neftchi Baku | Cup |
| 2024-12-15 | Neftchi Baku | 2-1 | Kapaz | Premyer Liqa |
| 2024-10-04 | Kapaz | 4-3 | Neftchi Baku | Premyer Liqa |
| 2024-05-10 | Neftchi Baku | 5-1 | Kapaz | Premyer Liqa |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Qarabag vs Turan 2026-11-06
- Safa Baku vs Araz — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Zira v Qabala — match page 2026-11-07
- Imisli FK vs Sumqayıt 2026-11-08
- Sabah FA v Şamaxı FK — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Neftchi Baku, previous: Şamaxı FK v Neftchi Baku analysis
- Kapaz, previous: Kapaz vs Imisli FK: odds and pick