Imisli FK vs Sumqayıt preview
In the upcoming match between Imisli FK and Sumqayıt, the 1X2 probabilities show Sumqayıt at 46% to win, compared to Imisli FK's 26%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 9% chance. Imisli FK has struggled recently, with a form of L-W-W-L-L-L, while Sumqayıt has a more stable record of D-L-W-W-D-D.
The expected goals indicate Imisli FK at 1.13 and Sumqayıt at 1.56, suggesting a tighter contest. The model predicts a 50% chance for Over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score. However, if Imisli FK improves their form or if the match sees an unexpected turn, these predictions could change.
Imisli FK vs Sumqayıt: model vs market
| Source | Imisli FK | Draw | Sumqayıt |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26% | 28% | 46% |
| Market | 30% | 30% | 41% |
| Published | 29% | 29% | 42% |
| Edge | -1% | -1% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.57 vs 1.12.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.27, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Imisli FK vs Sumqayıt odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sumqayıt, 2 snapshots since 2026-11-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Imisli FK | 3.05 | 3.05 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.05 | 3.06 | +0.01 |
| Sumqayıt | 2.24 | 2.24 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Imisli FK and Sumqayıt expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.69
- Attack rating (Imisli FK / Sumqayıt)
- 0.72 / 1.18
- Defence rating (Imisli FK / Sumqayıt)
- 1.07 / 1.16
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Imisli FK vs Sumqayıt score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Imisli FK goals. Columns: Sumqayıt goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Imisli FK vs Sumqayıt goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Imisli FK vs Sumqayıt
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Imisli FK | 29% | 3.47 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.43 | |
| Sumqayıt | 42% | 2.38 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 2.02 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.83 |
| No | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Imisli FK or draw) | 58% | 1.72 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Sumqayıt) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sumqayıt win by 2+ | 24% | 4.09 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Imisli FK and Sumqayıt recent form
Imisli FK
2W 0D 4L
Sumqayıt
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Imisli FK at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sumqayıt away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Imisli FK at home only, Sumqayıt away only.
Imisli FK vs Sumqayıt head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Imisli FK 0 · draws 0 · Sumqayıt 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Imisli FK | 0-2 | Sumqayıt | Premyer Liqa |
| 2025-12-09 | Sumqayıt | 1-0 | Imisli FK | Premyer Liqa |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Qarabag vs Turan 2026-11-06
- Neftchi Baku vs Kapaz — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Safa Baku vs Araz — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Zira v Qabala — match page 2026-11-07
- Sabah FA v Şamaxı FK — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Imisli FK, previous: Kapaz vs Imisli FK: odds and pick
- Sumqayıt, previous: Sumqayıt – Safa Baku, 2026-11-02