Sabah FA vs Şamaxı FK preview
In the match between Sabah FA and Şamaxı FK, the 1X2 probabilities show Sabah FA at 61%, while Şamaxı FK sits at 18%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 2.29 for Sabah FA and 1.19 for Şamaxı FK.
The potential for Over 2.5 goals is high at 68%, and both teams to score stands at 63%. However, Sabah FA's recent form includes two losses in their last three matches, which could impact their performance. Şamaxı FK has also struggled, with two losses in their last three games. These factors could lead to a different outcome than expected.
Sabah FA vs Şamaxı FK: model vs market
| Source | Sabah FA | Draw | Şamaxı FK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51% | 23% | 27% |
| Market | 74% | 17% | 9% |
| Published | 68% | 19% | 14% |
| Edge | -6% | +1% | +4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.12 vs 1.53.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.25, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -15.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Sabah FA vs Şamaxı FK odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sabah FA, 2 snapshots since 2026-11-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sabah FA | 1.23 | 1.23 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 5.25 | 5.25 | +0.00 |
| Şamaxı FK | 9.75 | 9.75 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sabah FA and Şamaxı FK expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.65
- Attack rating (Sabah FA / Şamaxı FK)
- 1.29 / 1.14
- Defence rating (Sabah FA / Şamaxı FK)
- 1.07 / 1.23
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sabah FA vs Şamaxı FK score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sabah FA goals. Columns: Şamaxı FK goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sabah FA vs Şamaxı FK goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sabah FA vs Şamaxı FK
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sabah FA | 68% | 1.47 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.40 | |
| Şamaxı FK | 14% | 7.32 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71% | 1.42 |
| Under 2.5 | 29% | 3.40 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.43 |
| No | 30% | 3.31 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sabah FA or draw) | 86% | 1.16 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.23 | |
| X2 (draw or Şamaxı FK) | 32% | 3.11 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sabah FA win by 2+ | 31% | 3.28 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sabah FA and Şamaxı FK recent form
Sabah FA
2W 1D 3L
Şamaxı FK
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sabah FA at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.25
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Şamaxı FK away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-4-2
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 1.14
- Goals against / match
- 1.14
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Sabah FA at home only, Şamaxı FK away only.
Sabah FA vs Şamaxı FK head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Sabah FA 2 · draws 1 · Şamaxı FK 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Şamaxı FK | 0-3 | Sabah FA | Premyer Liqa |
| 2025-11-23 | Sabah FA | 0-0 | Şamaxı FK | Premyer Liqa |
| 2025-08-24 | Şamaxı FK | 1-2 | Sabah FA | Premyer Liqa |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Qarabag vs Turan 2026-11-06
- Neftchi Baku vs Kapaz — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Safa Baku vs Araz — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Zira v Qabala — match page 2026-11-07
- Imisli FK vs Sumqayıt 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Sabah FA, previous: Viking vs Sabah FA prediction
- Sabah FA, next: Sabah FA vs Barcelona: odds and pick
- Şamaxı FK, previous: Şamaxı FK v Neftchi Baku analysis