Qarabag vs Turan: model vs market
| Source | Qarabag | Draw | Turan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 34% | 27% |
| Market | 60% | 24% | 16% |
| Published | 55% | 26% | 19% |
| Edge | -5% | +2% | +3% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Qarabag vs Turan odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Qarabag, 4 snapshots since 2026-11-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Qarabag | 1.56 | 1.50 | -0.06 |
| Draw | 3.72 | 3.74 | +0.02 |
| Turan | 5.15 | 5.50 | +0.35 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Qarabag and Turan expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.95
- Attack rating (Qarabag / Turan)
- 0.96 / 0.95
- Defence rating (Qarabag / Turan)
- 0.72 / 0.85
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Qarabag vs Turan score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Qarabag goals. Columns: Turan goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Qarabag vs Turan goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 40%
- No goals (0–0)
- 16%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Qarabag vs Turan
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Qarabag | 55% | 1.83 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.79 | |
| Turan | 19% | 5.29 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 31% | 3.22 |
| Under 2.5 | 69% | 1.45 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40% | 2.52 |
| No | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Qarabag or draw) | 81% | 1.23 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Turan) | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Handicap -1 | Qarabag win by 2+ | 17% | 5.95 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Qarabag and Turan recent form
Qarabag
2W 4D 0L
Turan
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Qarabag at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Turan away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Qarabag at home only, Turan away only.
Qarabag vs Turan head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Qarabag 6 · draws 2 · Turan 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | Qarabag | 2-1 | Turan | Premyer Liqa |
| 2026-02-01 | Qarabag | 1-0 | Turan | Premyer Liqa |
| 2025-10-17 | Turan | 1-2 | Qarabag | Premyer Liqa |
| 2025-03-28 | Turan | 1-4 | Qarabag | Premyer Liqa |
| 2025-01-26 | Qarabag | 1-2 | Turan | Premyer Liqa |
| 2024-11-01 | Turan | 0-0 | Qarabag | Premyer Liqa |
| 2024-08-24 | Qarabag | 0-1 | Turan | Premyer Liqa |
| 2024-05-17 | Qarabag | 4-3 | Turan | Premyer Liqa |
| 2024-03-17 | Turan | 1-3 | Qarabag | Premyer Liqa |
| 2023-10-20 | Turan | 2-2 | Qarabag | Premyer Liqa |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Neftchi Baku vs Kapaz — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Safa Baku vs Araz — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Zira v Qabala — match page 2026-11-07
- Imisli FK vs Sumqayıt 2026-11-08
- Sabah FA v Şamaxı FK — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Qarabag, previous: Qabala – Qarabag, 2026-10-31
- Turan, previous: Turan vs Sabah FA prediction