Safa Baku vs Araz Prediction & Betting Tips 07/11/2026

Safa Baku vs Araz preview

In the match between Safa Baku and Araz, the 1X2 probabilities show Araz at 37% and Safa Baku at 34%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, which has a 9% chance. Both teams to score stands at 55%, indicating a reasonable expectation for goals from both sides.

Safa Baku's recent form is concerning, with 6 matches without a win (D-L-L-L-L-L), while Araz's form is slightly better with 2 draws and 4 losses (D-L-L-L-L-D). The expected goals for Safa Baku are 1.26, while Araz has a slightly higher expectation at 1.40. This suggests that Araz may have the edge, but Safa Baku's home advantage could change the outcome.

Safa Baku vs Araz: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Safa Baku	Draw	Araz
Model	33%	28%	39%
Market	36%	28%	36%
Published	35%	28%	37%
Edge	-1%	0%	+1%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.56, recorded 2026-11-06 — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Safa Baku vs Araz odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Araz, 4 snapshots since 2026-11-05.

Opened 3.08Now 2.50 -0.58

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Safa Baku	2.09	2.48	+0.39
Draw	3.23	3.27	+0.05
Araz	3.08	2.50	-0.58

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Safa Baku and Araz expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.26Safa Baku

1.41Araz

Total expected goals: 2.67
Attack rating (Safa Baku / Araz): 0.69 / 0.89
Defence rating (Safa Baku / Araz): 1.27 / 1.37

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Safa Baku vs Araz score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.1% 8.5% 6.8% 3.2% 1.5% 1 7.5% 13.5% 8.7% 4.1% 1.9% 2 5.5% 7.8% 5.5% 2.6% 1.2% 3 2.3% 3.3% 2.3% 1.1% 0.5% 4+ 1.0% 1.4% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2%

Rows: Safa Baku goals. Columns: Araz goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Safa Baku vs Araz goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%

Over 1.5 76%

Over 2.5 50%

Over 3.5 28%

Both teams to score: 55%
No goals (0–0): 8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Safa Baku vs Araz

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Safa Baku	35%	2.83
	Draw	28%	3.61
	Araz	37%	2.71
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	50%	2.00
	Under 2.5	50%	2.00
Both teams to score	Yes	55%	1.80
	No	45%	2.24
Double chance	1X (Safa Baku or draw)	63%	1.58
	12 (either side)	72%	1.38
	X2 (draw or Araz)	65%	1.55
Handicap -1	Araz win by 2+	19%	5.27
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites

#	Welcome offer	Why it is here	Visit
1	50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply.	M-PESA Paybill 290059 Daily Jackpot Live betting	Get offer
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3	100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply.	M-Pesa and Airtel Money deposits Live in-play betting Android and iOS app	Get offer
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.

Safa Baku and Araz recent form

Safa Baku 0W 1D 5L

Araz 0W 2D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Safa Baku at home

Record (W-D-L): 0-0-4
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 0.25
Goals against / match: 1.75
Clean sheets: 0 of 4

They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
They average 0.8 goals per game on the road against 0.2 at home.
They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.

Araz away

Record (W-D-L): 0-0-4
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 1.00
Goals against / match: 3.00
Clean sheets: 0 of 4

They have won 0 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Safa Baku at home only, Araz away only.

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Qarabag vs Turan 2026-11-06
Neftchi Baku vs Kapaz — team news & stats 2026-11-06
Zira v Qabala — match page 2026-11-07
Imisli FK vs Sumqayıt 2026-11-08
Sabah FA v Şamaxı FK — match page 2026-11-08

Before and after this match

Safa Baku, previous: Sumqayıt – Safa Baku, 2026-11-02
Araz, previous: Araz v Zira analysis

Prediction snapshot Araz to win Predicted score 1 – 2 C Bet on Araz