Sumqayıt vs Safa Baku preview
In the match between Sumqayıt and Safa Baku, the 1X2 probabilities show Sumqayıt at 63%, while Safa Baku stands at 16%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 10% chance of occurring. Sumqayıt's expected goals are 2.17, compared to Safa Baku's 1.01, indicating a significant attacking advantage for the home side.
However, the recent form could affect the outcome. Sumqayıt has recorded one win in their last six matches, while Safa Baku is on a six-match losing streak. This could lead to unexpected results, despite the statistical edge for Sumqayıt in both Over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams to score at 57%.
Sumqayıt vs Safa Baku: model vs market
| Source | Sumqayıt | Draw | Safa Baku |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63% | 22% | 16% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 63% | 22% | 16% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 1.01.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Sumqayıt and Safa Baku expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.18
- Attack rating (Sumqayıt / Safa Baku)
- 1.22 / 0.67
- Defence rating (Sumqayıt / Safa Baku)
- 1.21 / 1.33
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sumqayıt vs Safa Baku score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sumqayıt goals. Columns: Safa Baku goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sumqayıt vs Safa Baku goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sumqayıt vs Safa Baku
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sumqayıt | 63% | 1.59 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.65 | |
| Safa Baku | 16% | 6.37 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.60 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.74 |
| No | 43% | 2.34 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sumqayıt or draw) | 84% | 1.19 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Safa Baku) | 37% | 2.69 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sumqayıt win by 2+ | 40% | 2.47 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sumqayıt and Safa Baku recent form
Sumqayıt
2W 2D 2L
Safa Baku
0W 0D 6L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sumqayıt at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Safa Baku away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-4
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They average 0.8 goals per game on the road against 0.0 at home.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sumqayıt at home only, Safa Baku away only.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Turan vs Sabah FA 2026-10-30
- Araz vs Zira — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Qabala vs Qarabag 2026-10-31
- Şamaxı FK v Neftchi Baku — match page 2026-11-01
- Kapaz vs Imisli FK — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Sumqayıt, previous: Zira vs Sumqayıt: odds and pick
- Safa Baku, previous: Safa Baku vs Kapaz prediction