Qabala vs Qarabag preview
In the match between Qabala and Qarabag, the 1X2 probabilities show Qarabag at 58% to win, compared to Qabala's 16%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 13% chance. This suggests a tight match where Qarabag is favored, but Qabala could surprise if they improve their recent form, which includes 4 losses in their last 5 matches.
Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are both at 45%, indicating uncertainty about offensive capabilities. Qabala has an expected goals figure of 0.79, while Qarabag stands at 1.68. If Qabala can find their scoring touch, the match could deviate from the predicted outcome.
Qabala vs Qarabag: model vs market
| Source | Qabala | Draw | Qarabag |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16% | 26% | 58% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 16% | 26% | 58% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.68 vs 0.79.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Qabala and Qarabag expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.47
- Attack rating (Qabala / Qarabag)
- 0.76 / 1.09
- Defence rating (Qabala / Qarabag)
- 1.24 / 0.77
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Qabala vs Qarabag score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Qabala goals. Columns: Qarabag goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Qabala vs Qarabag goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Qabala vs Qarabag
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Qabala | 16% | 6.21 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.82 | |
| Qarabag | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45% | 2.23 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.20 |
| No | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Qabala or draw) | 42% | 2.37 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Qarabag) | 84% | 1.19 | |
| Handicap -1 | Qarabag win by 2+ | 33% | 3.05 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Qabala and Qarabag recent form
Qabala
2W 0D 4L
Qarabag
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Qabala at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 8 matches.
Qarabag away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.25
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Qabala at home only, Qarabag away only.
Qabala vs Qarabag head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Qabala 0 · draws 1 · Qarabag 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Qabala | 1-1 | Qarabag | Premyer Liqa |
| 2025-12-21 | Qabala | 1-2 | Qarabag | Premyer Liqa |
| 2025-09-26 | Qarabag | 2-0 | Qabala | Premyer Liqa |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Turan vs Sabah FA 2026-10-30
- Araz vs Zira — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Şamaxı FK v Neftchi Baku — match page 2026-11-01
- Kapaz vs Imisli FK — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Sumqayıt v Safa Baku — match page 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- Qabala, previous: Araz v Qabala analysis
- Qarabag, previous: Sabah FA vs Qarabag: odds and pick