Zira vs Qabala preview
In the upcoming match between Zira and Qabala, the 1X2 probabilities show Zira at 55%, while Qabala is at 19%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with an 11% chance. Zira's expected goals stand at 1.68, compared to Qabala's 0.91, indicating a stronger attacking performance from Zira.
However, there are factors that could influence the outcome. Both teams to score is at 50%, suggesting a possibility that Qabala could find the net. Additionally, Zira's recent form includes four draws, which may impact their ability to secure a win. With a confidence grade of C, the match could be closer than the numbers suggest.
Zira vs Qabala: model vs market
| Source | Zira | Draw | Qabala |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54% | 26% | 19% |
| Market | 57% | 26% | 18% |
| Published | 56% | 26% | 18% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.68 vs 0.91.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.65, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Zira vs Qabala odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Zira, 4 snapshots since 2026-11-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zira | 1.62 | 1.58 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 3.38 | 3.50 | +0.12 |
| Qabala | 4.88 | 5.00 | +0.12 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Zira and Qabala expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.59
- Attack rating (Zira / Qabala)
- 1.11 / 0.69
- Defence rating (Zira / Qabala)
- 1.06 / 1.13
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Zira vs Qabala score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Zira goals. Columns: Qabala goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Zira vs Qabala goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Zira vs Qabala
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Zira | 56% | 1.78 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.88 | |
| Qabala | 18% | 5.50 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.08 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 2.01 |
| No | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Zira or draw) | 82% | 1.22 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Qabala) | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Handicap -1 | Zira win by 2+ | 31% | 3.27 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Zira and Qabala recent form
Zira
1W 4D 1L
Qabala
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Zira at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-2-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.83
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Qabala away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 10 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Zira at home only, Qabala away only.
Zira vs Qabala head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Zira 7 · draws 1 · Qabala 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Zira | 1-0 | Qabala | Premyer Liqa |
| 2025-11-22 | Zira | 1-0 | Qabala | Premyer Liqa |
| 2025-08-25 | Qabala | 1-2 | Zira | Premyer Liqa |
| 2024-04-24 | Qabala | 0-2 | Zira | Cup |
| 2024-04-07 | Zira | 4-0 | Qabala | Premyer Liqa |
| 2024-04-03 | Zira | 2-1 | Qabala | Cup |
| 2024-02-04 | Qabala | 1-1 | Zira | Premyer Liqa |
| 2023-11-12 | Zira | 1-0 | Qabala | Premyer Liqa |
| 2023-09-02 | Qabala | 1-0 | Zira | Premyer Liqa |
| 2023-04-07 | Qabala | 2-1 | Zira | Premyer Liqa |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Qarabag vs Turan 2026-11-06
- Neftchi Baku vs Kapaz — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Safa Baku vs Araz — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Imisli FK vs Sumqayıt 2026-11-08
- Sabah FA v Şamaxı FK — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Zira, previous: Araz v Zira analysis
- Qabala, previous: Qabala – Qarabag, 2026-10-31