Sabah FA vs Qarabag preview
In the upcoming match between Sabah FA and Qarabag, the 1X2 probabilities show a strong lean towards Sabah FA at 56%, compared to Qarabag's 19%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.79 for Sabah FA and 0.97 for Qarabag. This suggests a tight match where Sabah FA could edge out a victory.
However, the predictions could be challenged if Qarabag improves their scoring, as they have shown solid recent form with 5 matches unbeaten. Additionally, both teams to score stands at 53%, indicating that while Sabah FA is favored, there is still a chance for Qarabag to find the net. The confidence grade of C reflects some uncertainty in the outcome.
Sabah FA vs Qarabag: model vs market
| Source | Sabah FA | Draw | Qarabag |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56% | 25% | 19% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 56% | 25% | 19% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.79 vs 0.97.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Sabah FA and Qarabag expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.77
- Attack rating (Sabah FA / Qarabag)
- 1.61 / 1.23
- Defence rating (Sabah FA / Qarabag)
- 0.64 / 0.83
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sabah FA vs Qarabag score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sabah FA goals. Columns: Qarabag goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sabah FA vs Qarabag goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sabah FA vs Qarabag
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sabah FA | 56% | 1.80 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.96 | |
| Qarabag | 19% | 5.21 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.10 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.89 |
| No | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sabah FA or draw) | 81% | 1.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Qarabag) | 44% | 2.25 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sabah FA win by 2+ | 32% | 3.10 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sabah FA and Qarabag recent form
Sabah FA
4W 1D 1L
Qarabag
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sabah FA at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 3.3 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Qarabag away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sabah FA at home only, Qarabag away only.
Sabah FA vs Qarabag head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Sabah FA 2 · draws 1 · Qarabag 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Qarabag | 0-1 | Sabah FA | Premyer Liqa |
| 2026-03-01 | Qarabag | 3-3 | Sabah FA | Premyer Liqa |
| 2025-12-18 | Sabah FA | 2-1 | Qarabag | Premyer Liqa |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Araz vs Qabala 2026-10-23
- Zira vs Sumqayıt 2026-10-23
- Safa Baku vs Kapaz — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Neftchi Baku v Turan — match page 2026-10-24
- Imisli FK vs Şamaxı FK — team news & stats 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Sabah FA, previous: Sabah FA v Borussia Dortmund analysis
- Sabah FA, next: Viking vs Sabah FA prediction
- Qarabag, previous: Qarabag – Neftchi Baku, 2026-10-17