Safa Baku vs Kapaz preview
In the fixture between Safa Baku and Kapaz, the 1X2 probabilities show Safa Baku at 24%, a draw at 32%, and Kapaz at 44%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which occurs with a 14% probability. Safa Baku has struggled recently, losing six consecutive matches, while Kapaz has shown more resilience with two wins in their last five games.
The expected goals indicate Safa Baku at 0.83 and Kapaz at 1.22, suggesting a potential advantage for Kapaz. However, the 34% chance of Over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score could mean a surprise if Safa Baku finds their form. The confidence grade is C, reflecting uncertainty in the outcome.
Safa Baku vs Kapaz: model vs market
| Source | Safa Baku | Draw | Kapaz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24% | 32% | 44% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 24% | 32% | 44% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.23 vs 0.83.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Safa Baku and Kapaz expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.06
- Attack rating (Safa Baku / Kapaz)
- 0.65 / 0.76
- Defence rating (Safa Baku / Kapaz)
- 1.31 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Safa Baku vs Kapaz score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Safa Baku goals. Columns: Kapaz goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Safa Baku vs Kapaz goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 41%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Safa Baku vs Kapaz
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Safa Baku | 24% | 4.23 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.12 | |
| Kapaz | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34% | 2.94 |
| Under 2.5 | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41% | 2.43 |
| No | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Safa Baku or draw) | 56% | 1.80 |
| 12 (either side) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| X2 (draw or Kapaz) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| Handicap -1 | Kapaz win by 2+ | 20% | 4.90 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Safa Baku and Kapaz recent form
Safa Baku
0W 0D 6L
Kapaz
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Safa Baku at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.3 goals per match.
- They average 0.5 goals per game on the road against 0.0 at home.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 7 matches.
Kapaz away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Safa Baku at home only, Kapaz away only.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Araz vs Qabala 2026-10-23
- Zira vs Sumqayıt 2026-10-23
- Neftchi Baku v Turan — match page 2026-10-24
- Imisli FK vs Şamaxı FK — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Sabah FA v Qarabag — match page 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Safa Baku, previous: Şamaxı FK vs Safa Baku: odds and pick
- Kapaz, previous: Kapaz vs Zira prediction