Imisli FK vs Şamaxı FK preview
In the match between Imisli FK and Şamaxı FK, the 1X2 probabilities show Şamaxı FK at 47%, while Imisli FK sits at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which reflects Şamaxı FK's stronger expected goals of 1.48 compared to Imisli FK's 0.99.
However, the match could deviate from this prediction if Imisli FK manages to convert their chances better than expected. Both teams to score stands at 50%, indicating a reasonable chance for Imisli FK to find the net. Additionally, with 45% for Over 2.5 goals, a high-scoring game is not out of the question if both teams perform above their averages.
Imisli FK vs Şamaxı FK: model vs market
| Source | Imisli FK | Draw | Şamaxı FK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24% | 29% | 47% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 24% | 29% | 47% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 0.99.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Imisli FK and Şamaxı FK expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.47
- Attack rating (Imisli FK / Şamaxı FK)
- 0.71 / 1.09
- Defence rating (Imisli FK / Şamaxı FK)
- 1.09 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Imisli FK vs Şamaxı FK score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Imisli FK goals. Columns: Şamaxı FK goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Imisli FK vs Şamaxı FK goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Imisli FK vs Şamaxı FK
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Imisli FK | 24% | 4.15 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.48 | |
| Şamaxı FK | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45% | 2.23 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 2.01 |
| No | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Imisli FK or draw) | 53% | 1.89 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Şamaxı FK) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| Handicap -1 | Şamaxı FK win by 2+ | 24% | 4.13 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Imisli FK and Şamaxı FK recent form
Imisli FK
2W 0D 4L
Şamaxı FK
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Imisli FK at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Şamaxı FK away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-4-1
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Imisli FK at home only, Şamaxı FK away only.
Imisli FK vs Şamaxı FK head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Imisli FK 0 · draws 2 · Şamaxı FK 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | Şamaxı FK | 0-0 | Imisli FK | Premyer Liqa |
| 2026-02-22 | Imisli FK | 0-0 | Şamaxı FK | Premyer Liqa |
| 2025-11-07 | Şamaxı FK | 1-0 | Imisli FK | Premyer Liqa |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Araz vs Qabala 2026-10-23
- Zira vs Sumqayıt 2026-10-23
- Safa Baku vs Kapaz — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Neftchi Baku v Turan — match page 2026-10-24
- Sabah FA v Qarabag — match page 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Imisli FK, previous: Imisli FK – Turan, 2026-10-18
- Şamaxı FK, previous: Şamaxı FK vs Safa Baku: odds and pick