Zira vs Sumqayıt preview
In the match between Zira and Sumqayıt, Zira has a 41% chance of winning compared to 31% for Sumqayıt. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with our model giving it a 9% probability. Zira's expected goals stand at 1.51, while Sumqayıt's is lower at 1.29.
Both teams to score has a 58% likelihood, and there is a 53% chance of Over 2.5 goals being scored. However, Zira's recent form shows a mix of results with two wins in their last five matches, while Sumqayıt has struggled, losing four of their last six. This inconsistency could affect the outcome, making the match unpredictable.
Zira vs Sumqayıt: model vs market
| Source | Zira | Draw | Sumqayıt |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 28% | 35% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 37% | 28% | 35% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Zira and Sumqayıt expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.75
- Attack rating (Zira / Sumqayıt)
- 0.93 / 1.18
- Defence rating (Zira / Sumqayıt)
- 0.92 / 1.13
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Zira vs Sumqayıt score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Zira goals. Columns: Sumqayıt goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Zira vs Sumqayıt goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Zira vs Sumqayıt
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Zira | 37% | 2.69 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.58 | |
| Sumqayıt | 35% | 2.87 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.93 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.75 |
| No | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Zira or draw) | 65% | 1.53 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Sumqayıt) | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Handicap -1 | Zira win by 2+ | 18% | 5.59 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Zira and Sumqayıt recent form
Zira
1W 3D 2L
Sumqayıt
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Zira at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-0
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sumqayıt away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Zira at home only, Sumqayıt away only.
Zira vs Sumqayıt head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Zira 3 · draws 0 · Sumqayıt 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Zira | 2-1 | Sumqayıt | Premyer Liqa |
| 2026-02-08 | Sumqayıt | 2-3 | Zira | Premyer Liqa |
| 2025-10-25 | Zira | 1-0 | Sumqayıt | Premyer Liqa |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Araz vs Qabala 2026-10-23
- Safa Baku vs Kapaz — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Neftchi Baku v Turan — match page 2026-10-24
- Imisli FK vs Şamaxı FK — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Sabah FA v Qarabag — match page 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Zira, previous: Kapaz vs Zira prediction
- Sumqayıt, previous: Sumqayıt v Araz analysis