Neftchi Baku vs Turan preview
In the fixture between Neftchi Baku and Turan, the 1X2 probabilities show Neftchi Baku at 51%, while Turan sits at 21%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 12% chance. Neftchi Baku's expected goals are 1.53 compared to Turan's 0.90, indicating a potential edge for the home side.
However, recent form suggests both teams are competitive, with Neftchi Baku recording D-W-W-W-L-W and Turan on W-W-D-W-L-D. The head-to-head record shows Neftchi Baku has not won in the last three encounters, with 0 wins, 1 draw, and 2 wins for Turan. This could impact the outcome, making it possible for Turan to perform better than expected.
Neftchi Baku vs Turan: model vs market
| Source | Neftchi Baku | Draw | Turan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 27% | 20% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 53% | 27% | 20% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.62 vs 0.91.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Neftchi Baku and Turan expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.54
- Attack rating (Neftchi Baku / Turan)
- 1.61 / 0.86
- Defence rating (Neftchi Baku / Turan)
- 0.86 / 0.75
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Neftchi Baku vs Turan score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Neftchi Baku goals. Columns: Turan goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Neftchi Baku vs Turan goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Neftchi Baku vs Turan
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Neftchi Baku | 53% | 1.89 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.69 | |
| Turan | 20% | 5.01 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.15 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.87 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.03 |
| No | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Neftchi Baku or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Turan) | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Handicap -1 | Neftchi Baku win by 2+ | 29% | 3.45 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Neftchi Baku and Turan recent form
Neftchi Baku
3W 2D 1L
Turan
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Neftchi Baku at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 2.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Turan away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Neftchi Baku at home only, Turan away only.
Neftchi Baku vs Turan head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Neftchi Baku 0 · draws 1 · Turan 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-09 | Neftchi Baku | 0-1 | Turan | Premyer Liqa |
| 2025-11-28 | Turan | 0-0 | Neftchi Baku | Premyer Liqa |
| 2025-08-29 | Neftchi Baku | 0-1 | Turan | Premyer Liqa |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Araz vs Qabala 2026-10-23
- Zira vs Sumqayıt 2026-10-23
- Safa Baku vs Kapaz — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Imisli FK vs Şamaxı FK — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Sabah FA v Qarabag — match page 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Neftchi Baku, previous: Qarabag – Neftchi Baku, 2026-10-17
- Turan, previous: Imisli FK – Turan, 2026-10-18