Araz vs Qabala preview
In the Premyer Liqa fixture between Araz and Qabala, Araz has a 42% chance to win compared to Qabala's 29%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which aligns with Araz's expected goals of 1.38, while Qabala has an expected goals figure of 1.12.
Both teams have struggled recently, with Araz losing 5 of their last 6 matches and Qabala losing 4 in a row before a draw. While there is a 52% chance for both teams to score, the recent form could impact this outcome. The confidence grade is C, indicating uncertainty in the prediction.
Araz vs Qabala: model vs market
| Source | Araz | Draw | Qabala |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 29% | 29% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 42% | 29% | 29% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Araz and Qabala expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.50
- Attack rating (Araz / Qabala)
- 0.80 / 0.65
- Defence rating (Araz / Qabala)
- 1.38 / 1.29
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Araz vs Qabala score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Araz goals. Columns: Qabala goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Araz vs Qabala goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Araz vs Qabala
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Araz | 42% | 2.40 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.42 | |
| Qabala | 29% | 3.44 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.19 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.93 |
| No | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Araz or draw) | 71% | 1.41 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Qabala) | 58% | 1.71 | |
| Handicap -1 | Araz win by 2+ | 20% | 4.94 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Araz and Qabala recent form
Araz
0W 1D 5L
Qabala
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Araz at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Qabala away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 7 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Araz at home only, Qabala away only.
Araz vs Qabala head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Araz 1 · draws 1 · Qabala 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Qabala | 1-1 | Araz | Premyer Liqa |
| 2025-11-30 | Qabala | 2-1 | Araz | Premyer Liqa |
| 2025-08-30 | Araz | 2-1 | Qabala | Premyer Liqa |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Zira vs Sumqayıt 2026-10-23
- Safa Baku vs Kapaz — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Neftchi Baku v Turan — match page 2026-10-24
- Imisli FK vs Şamaxı FK — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Sabah FA v Qarabag — match page 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Araz, previous: Sumqayıt v Araz analysis
- Qabala, previous: Qabala v Sabah FA analysis