Excelsior Virton vs Beerschot VA preview
Excelsior Virton faces Beerschot VA with a 23% chance of winning compared to Beerschot VA's 56%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which occurs with a 9% probability. Beerschot VA's strong recent form, winning 6 matches in a row, could lead to a decisive victory.
The model suggests a high likelihood of goals, with 73% for Over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score. However, Excelsior Virton's ability to secure points is uncertain, as they have only won 1 of their last 6 matches. This could affect the overall outcome and the expected goals of 1.47 for Excelsior Virton versus 2.35 for Beerschot VA.
Excelsior Virton vs Beerschot VA: model vs market
| Source | Excelsior Virton | Draw | Beerschot VA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24% | 22% | 54% |
| Market | 20% | 23% | 57% |
| Published | 21% | 23% | 56% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.27 vs 1.51.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.66, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Excelsior Virton vs Beerschot VA odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Beerschot VA, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior Virton | 4.64 | 4.60 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 3.88 | 3.90 | +0.02 |
| Beerschot VA | 1.62 | 1.61 | -0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Excelsior Virton and Beerschot VA expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.78
- Attack rating (Excelsior Virton / Beerschot VA)
- 1.16 / 1.62
- Defence rating (Excelsior Virton / Beerschot VA)
- 1.04 / 0.85
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Excelsior Virton vs Beerschot VA score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Excelsior Virton goals. Columns: Beerschot VA goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Excelsior Virton vs Beerschot VA goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 71%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Excelsior Virton vs Beerschot VA
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Excelsior Virton | 21% | 4.77 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.36 | |
| Beerschot VA | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73% | 1.37 |
| Under 2.5 | 27% | 3.67 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71% | 1.42 |
| No | 29% | 3.40 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Excelsior Virton or draw) | 44% | 2.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Beerschot VA) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| Handicap -1 | Beerschot VA win by 2+ | 34% | 2.94 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Excelsior Virton and Beerschot VA recent form
Excelsior Virton
2W 1D 3L
Beerschot VA
6W 0D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Excelsior Virton at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Beerschot VA away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 8 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 3.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Excelsior Virton at home only, Beerschot VA away only.
Excelsior Virton vs Beerschot VA head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Excelsior Virton 2 · draws 1 · Beerschot VA 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-05 | Excelsior Virton | 0-1 | Beerschot VA | Belgium Cup |
| 2022-11-12 | Beerschot VA | 3-0 | Excelsior Virton | Challenger Pro League |
| 2022-09-18 | Excelsior Virton | 1-2 | Beerschot VA | Challenger Pro League |
| 2020-07-26 | Excelsior Virton | 1-0 | Beerschot VA | Challenger Pro League |
| 2019-12-07 | Beerschot VA | 1-1 | Excelsior Virton | Challenger Pro League |
| 2019-10-19 | Beerschot VA | 2-1 | Excelsior Virton | Challenger Pro League |
| 2019-09-21 | Excelsior Virton | 3-0 | Beerschot VA | Challenger Pro League |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
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- KRC Genk II vs KAA Gent II — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Francs Borains v Seraing United — match page 2026-11-07
- RSC Anderlecht II vs Club Brugge II 2026-11-07
- K. Lierse S.K. vs AS Eupen 2026-11-08
- Lokeren-Temse v Dender — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Excelsior Virton, previous: AS Eupen vs Excelsior Virton prediction
- Beerschot VA, previous: Beerschot VA vs Francs Borains: odds and pick