AS Eupen vs Excelsior Virton preview
In the Challenger Pro League match between AS Eupen and Excelsior Virton, the model gives AS Eupen a 41% chance to win, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1 at 9%. The model also indicates a 62% probability for Over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance for both teams to score.
AS Eupen's expected goals stand at 1.70, while Excelsior Virton's is slightly lower at 1.52. However, the recent form shows AS Eupen with two losses in their last three matches, while Excelsior Virton has also struggled, losing three of their last four. This inconsistency could affect the outcome, making it less predictable.
AS Eupen vs Excelsior Virton: model vs market
| Source | AS Eupen | Draw | Excelsior Virton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 25% | 34% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 41% | 25% | 34% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
AS Eupen and Excelsior Virton expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.22
- Attack rating (AS Eupen / Excelsior Virton)
- 1.05 / 1.13
- Defence rating (AS Eupen / Excelsior Virton)
- 0.98 / 1.07
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
AS Eupen vs Excelsior Virton score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: AS Eupen goals. Columns: Excelsior Virton goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
AS Eupen vs Excelsior Virton goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for AS Eupen vs Excelsior Virton
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AS Eupen | 41% | 2.43 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.95 | |
| Excelsior Virton | 34% | 2.98 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.66 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.54 |
| No | 35% | 2.85 | |
| Double chance | 1X (AS Eupen or draw) | 66% | 1.50 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Excelsior Virton) | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Handicap -1 | AS Eupen win by 2+ | 22% | 4.56 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
AS Eupen and Excelsior Virton recent form
AS Eupen
4W 0D 2L
Excelsior Virton
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
AS Eupen at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Excelsior Virton away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: AS Eupen at home only, Excelsior Virton away only.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Seraing United vs Liège 2026-10-30
- KAA Gent II vs K. Lierse S.K. — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Beerschot VA vs Francs Borains — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Patro Eisden vs Lokeren-Temse — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Club Brugge II v Sporting Hasselt — match page 2026-10-31
- Dender v KRC Genk II — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- AS Eupen, previous: AS Eupen vs Beerschot VA prediction
- Excelsior Virton, previous: Seraing United vs Excelsior Virton: odds and pick