KAA Gent II vs K. Lierse S.K. Prediction & Betting Tips 30/10/2026

KAA Gent II vs K. Lierse S.K. preview

KAA Gent II faces K. Lierse S.K. with a 32% chance of winning for KAA Gent II compared to 42% for K. Lierse S.K. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with expected goals of 1.42 for KAA Gent II and 1.64 for K. Lierse S.K. The model suggests a strong chance for Over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams to score at 62%.

KAA Gent II's recent form shows a mixed bag with 2 wins and 3 losses in their last 5 matches. In contrast, K. Lierse S.K. has 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating potential unpredictability in the outcome.

KAA Gent II vs K. Lierse S.K.: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	KAA Gent II	Draw	K. Lierse S.K.
Model	29%	27%	44%
Market	—	—	—
Published	29%	27%	44%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.62 vs 1.30.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

KAA Gent II and K. Lierse S.K. expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.30KAA Gent II

1.62K. Lierse S.K.

Total expected goals: 2.91
Attack rating (KAA Gent II / K. Lierse S.K.): 0.89 / 0.94
Defence rating (KAA Gent II / K. Lierse S.K.): 1.27 / 0.97

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

KAA Gent II vs K. Lierse S.K. score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.6% 7.6% 7.1% 3.8% 2.2% 1 5.9% 12.5% 9.2% 5.0% 2.9% 2 4.5% 7.4% 6.0% 3.2% 1.9% 3 2.0% 3.2% 2.6% 1.4% 0.8% 4+ 0.8% 1.4% 1.1% 0.6% 0.3%

Rows: KAA Gent II goals. Columns: K. Lierse S.K. goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

KAA Gent II vs K. Lierse S.K. goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%

Over 1.5 80%

Over 2.5 56%

Over 3.5 33%

Both teams to score: 59%
No goals (0–0): 7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for KAA Gent II vs K. Lierse S.K.

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	KAA Gent II	29%	3.39
	Draw	27%	3.76
	K. Lierse S.K.	44%	2.28
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	56%	1.79
	Under 2.5	44%	2.26
Both teams to score	Yes	59%	1.68
	No	41%	2.46
Double chance	1X (KAA Gent II or draw)	56%	1.78
	12 (either side)	73%	1.36
	X2 (draw or K. Lierse S.K.)	71%	1.42
Handicap -1	K. Lierse S.K. win by 2+	23%	4.31
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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KAA Gent II and K. Lierse S.K. recent form

KAA Gent II 2W 2D 2L

K. Lierse S.K. 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

KAA Gent II at home

Record (W-D-L): 1-1-1
Win rate: 33%
Goals for / match: 1.67
Goals against / match: 1.67
Clean sheets: 0 of 3

They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

K. Lierse S.K. away

Record (W-D-L): 0-1-2
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 0.67
Goals against / match: 2.33
Clean sheets: 0 of 3

They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: KAA Gent II at home only, K. Lierse S.K. away only.

KAA Gent II vs K. Lierse S.K. head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: KAA Gent II 1 · draws 1 · K. Lierse S.K. 0.

50% 50% 0%

KAA Gent IIDrawsK. Lierse S.K.

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-02-21	K. Lierse S.K.	1-3	KAA Gent II	Challenger Pro League
2025-09-25	KAA Gent II	0-0	K. Lierse S.K.	Challenger Pro League

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Before and after this match

KAA Gent II, previous: Lokeren-Temse vs KAA Gent II prediction
K. Lierse S.K., previous: RSC Anderlecht II v K. Lierse S.K. analysis

Prediction snapshot K. Lierse S.K. to win Predicted score 1 – 2 C Bet on K. Lierse S.K.