Dender vs KRC Genk II Prediction & Betting Tips 01/11/2026

Dender vs KRC Genk II preview

Dender faces KRC Genk II with a 61% probability of winning, while KRC Genk II has just a 15% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which aligns with Dender's expected goals of 1.91 compared to KRC Genk II's 0.86.

However, there are factors that could challenge this prediction. Both teams to score stands at 50%, indicating a possibility that KRC Genk II could find the net. Additionally, Dender's recent form shows a loss followed by five wins, while KRC Genk II has mixed results with two wins and three draws in their last five matches. This could lead to a tighter match than anticipated.

Dender vs KRC Genk II: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Dender	Draw	KRC Genk II
Model	61%	24%	15%
Market	—	—	—
Published	61%	24%	15%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 0.86.
Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Dender and KRC Genk II expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.91Dender

0.86KRC Genk II

Total expected goals: 2.76
Attack rating (Dender / KRC Genk II): 1.18 / 0.95
Defence rating (Dender / KRC Genk II): 0.67 / 1.06

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Dender vs KRC Genk II score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.3% 4.4% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2% 1 11.0% 11.3% 4.4% 1.3% 0.3% 2 11.4% 9.8% 4.2% 1.2% 0.3% 3 7.3% 6.2% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2% 4+ 5.4% 4.6% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1%

Rows: Dender goals. Columns: KRC Genk II goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Dender vs KRC Genk II goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%

Over 1.5 77%

Over 2.5 52%

Over 3.5 30%

Both teams to score: 50%
No goals (0–0): 7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Dender vs KRC Genk II

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Dender	61%	1.64
	Draw	24%	4.21
	KRC Genk II	15%	6.54
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	52%	1.92
	Under 2.5	48%	2.09
Both teams to score	Yes	50%	2.00
	No	50%	2.00
Double chance	1X (Dender or draw)	85%	1.18
	12 (either side)	76%	1.31
	X2 (draw or KRC Genk II)	39%	2.56
Handicap -1	Dender win by 2+	37%	2.70
	Push (exactly one goal)	24%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Dender and KRC Genk II recent form

Dender 5W 0D 1L

KRC Genk II 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Dender at home

Record (W-D-L): 4-0-0
Win rate: 100%
Goals for / match: 2.00
Goals against / match: 0.00
Clean sheets: 4 of 4

They have won 6 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
They have kept 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.
40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

KRC Genk II away

Record (W-D-L): 1-0-3
Win rate: 25%
Goals for / match: 1.25
Goals against / match: 2.50
Clean sheets: 0 of 4

They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Dender at home only, KRC Genk II away only.

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

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Beerschot VA vs Francs Borains — team news & stats 2026-10-31
Patro Eisden vs Lokeren-Temse — team news & stats 2026-10-31
Club Brugge II v Sporting Hasselt — match page 2026-10-31
AS Eupen vs Excelsior Virton 2026-11-01

Before and after this match

Dender, previous: Francs Borains – Dender, 2026-10-23
KRC Genk II, previous: KRC Genk II – Club Brugge II, 2026-10-24

Prediction snapshot Dender to win Predicted score 2 – 0 C Bet on Dender