Mamelodi Sundowns vs Wiliete Prediction & Betting Tips 23/10/2026

Mamelodi Sundowns vs Wiliete preview

In the CAF Champions League fixture between Mamelodi Sundowns and Wiliete, the 1X2 probabilities show Mamelodi Sundowns at 75%, while Wiliete sits at 8%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a probability of 11%. Mamelodi Sundowns has a strong expected goals figure of 2.62 compared to Wiliete's 0.81, indicating a significant attacking advantage.

However, the confidence grade is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the predictions. While there is a 67% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance for both teams to score, factors like Wiliete's recent form, which includes two losses in their last four matches, could influence the outcome.

Mamelodi Sundowns vs Wiliete: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Mamelodi Sundowns	Draw	Wiliete
Model	78%	14%	7%
Market	—	—	—
Published	78%	14%	7%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.86 vs 0.83.
Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Mamelodi Sundowns and Wiliete expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.86Mamelodi Sundowns

0.83Wiliete

Total expected goals: 3.70
Attack rating (Mamelodi Sundowns / Wiliete): 2.15 / 1.15
Defence rating (Mamelodi Sundowns / Wiliete): 0.99 / 1.05

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Mamelodi Sundowns vs Wiliete score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.1% 1.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 1 6.5% 6.5% 2.5% 0.7% 0.2% 2 10.2% 8.5% 3.5% 1.0% 0.2% 3 9.7% 8.1% 3.4% 0.9% 0.2% 4+ 14.0% 11.7% 4.8% 1.3% 0.3%

Rows: Mamelodi Sundowns goals. Columns: Wiliete goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Mamelodi Sundowns vs Wiliete goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%

Over 1.5 89%

Over 2.5 71%

Over 3.5 50%

Both teams to score: 54%
No goals (0–0): 3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Mamelodi Sundowns vs Wiliete

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Mamelodi Sundowns	78%	1.28
	Draw	14%	7.05
	Wiliete	7%	13.49
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	71%	1.40
	Under 2.5	29%	3.49
Both teams to score	Yes	54%	1.86
	No	46%	2.17
Double chance	1X (Mamelodi Sundowns or draw)	93%	1.08
	12 (either side)	86%	1.17
	X2 (draw or Wiliete)	22%	4.63
Handicap -1	Mamelodi Sundowns win by 2+	59%	1.69
	Push (exactly one goal)	19%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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