Al Merreikh vs Horoya Prediction & Betting Tips 24/10/2026

Al Merreikh vs Horoya preview

In the CAF Champions League fixture between Al Merreikh and Horoya, the 1X2 probabilities show Al Merreikh at 51%, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 at 21%. Al Merreikh's expected goals are 1.14, while Horoya's are significantly lower at 0.49. This suggests a strong chance for Al Merreikh to secure a narrow victory.

However, the match could take a different turn if both teams manage to find the net, as the model indicates a 27% likelihood for both teams to score. Additionally, with only a 22% chance for Over 2.5 goals, any unexpected offensive performance from Horoya could challenge the predicted outcome.

Al Merreikh vs Horoya: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Al Merreikh	Draw	Horoya
Model	51%	34%	15%
Market	—	—	—
Published	51%	34%	15%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.13 vs 0.49.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Al Merreikh and Horoya expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.13Al Merreikh

0.49Horoya

Total expected goals: 1.63
Attack rating (Al Merreikh / Horoya): 0.80 / 1.04
Defence rating (Al Merreikh / Horoya): 0.65 / 1.11

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Al Merreikh vs Horoya score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 20.8% 8.6% 2.4% 0.4% 0.1% 1 21.2% 12.1% 2.7% 0.4% 0.1% 2 12.6% 6.2% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 3 4.8% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 1.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Al Merreikh goals. Columns: Horoya goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Al Merreikh vs Horoya goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 79%

Over 1.5 49%

Over 2.5 22%

Over 3.5 8%

Both teams to score: 28%
No goals (0–0): 21%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Al Merreikh vs Horoya

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Al Merreikh	51%	1.98
	Draw	34%	2.90
	Horoya	15%	6.68
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	22%	4.47
	Under 2.5	78%	1.29
Both teams to score	Yes	28%	3.63
	No	72%	1.38
Double chance	1X (Al Merreikh or draw)	85%	1.18
	12 (either side)	66%	1.53
	X2 (draw or Horoya)	49%	2.02
Handicap -1	Al Merreikh win by 2+	23%	4.44
	Push (exactly one goal)	28%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites

#	Welcome offer	Why it is here	Visit
1	50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply.	M-PESA Paybill 290059 Daily Jackpot Live betting	Get offer
2	First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day Live betting around the clock 30+ markets on live events	Get offer
3	100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply.	M-Pesa and Airtel Money deposits Live in-play betting Android and iOS app	Get offer
4	200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day 30+ markets on live events 24/7 customer support	Get offer