Cobresal vs Universidad de Concepcion: model vs market
| Source | Cobresal | Draw | Universidad de Concepcion |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63% | 23% | 15% |
| Market | 44% | 27% | 30% |
| Published | 48% | 26% | 26% |
| Edge | +19% | -4% | -15% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 0.88.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Cobresal below the model: +19.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.17, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Cobresal vs Universidad de Concepcion odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Cobresal, 22 snapshots since 2026-09-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cobresal | 2.10 | 2.10 | -0.00 |
| Draw | 3.46 | 3.41 | -0.05 |
| Universidad de Concepcion | 3.11 | 3.10 | -0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cobresal and Universidad de Concepcion expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.90
- Attack rating (Cobresal / Universidad de Concepcion)
- 1.07 / 0.59
- Defence rating (Cobresal / Universidad de Concepcion)
- 1.29 / 1.20
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cobresal vs Universidad de Concepcion score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cobresal goals. Columns: Universidad de Concepcion goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cobresal vs Universidad de Concepcion goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cobresal vs Universidad de Concepcion
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cobresal | 48% | 2.07 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.88 | |
| Universidad de Concepcion | 26% | 3.87 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.93 |
| No | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cobresal or draw) | 74% | 1.35 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Universidad de Concepcion) | 52% | 1.94 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cobresal win by 2+ | 39% | 2.54 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Cobresal and Universidad de Concepcion recent form
Cobresal
2W 1D 3L
Universidad de Concepcion
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cobresal at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-0-5
- Win rate
- 55%
- Goals for / match
- 1.64
- Goals against / match
- 1.45
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 11
- They have won 5 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 22 matches.
Universidad de Concepcion away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-8
- Win rate
- 8%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 12
- They have won 6 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 22 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cobresal at home only, Universidad de Concepcion away only.
Cobresal vs Universidad de Concepcion head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Cobresal 0 · draws 0 · Universidad de Concepcion 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-13 | Universidad de Concepcion | 1-0 | Cobresal | Chile Primera División |
Other Matchday 24 fixtures
- Huachipato vs O'Higgins 2026-10-10
- U. Catolica v A. Italiano — match page 2026-10-10
- Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo 2026-10-11
- Concepción v Union La Calera — match page 2026-10-11
- Deportes Limache vs Palestino — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Universidad de Chile v Nublense — match page 2026-10-12