Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo: model vs market
| Source | Coquimbo Unido | Draw | Colo Colo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22% | 24% | 54% |
| Market | 30% | 28% | 42% |
| Published | 28% | 27% | 45% |
| Edge | -9% | -4% | +13% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.94 vs 1.16.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Colo Colo below the model: +12.7 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.30, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Colo Colo, 22 snapshots since 2026-09-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coquimbo Unido | 3.07 | 3.03 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.27 | -0.03 |
| Colo Colo | 2.21 | 2.21 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Coquimbo Unido and Colo Colo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.10
- Attack rating (Coquimbo Unido / Colo Colo)
- 0.84 / 1.59
- Defence rating (Coquimbo Unido / Colo Colo)
- 1.06 / 0.88
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Coquimbo Unido goals. Columns: Colo Colo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Coquimbo Unido | 28% | 3.56 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.69 | |
| Colo Colo | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.49 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.67 |
| No | 40% | 2.49 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Coquimbo Unido or draw) | 55% | 1.81 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Colo Colo) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Handicap -1 | Colo Colo win by 2+ | 32% | 3.09 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Coquimbo Unido and Colo Colo recent form
Coquimbo Unido
1W 1D 4L
Colo Colo
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Coquimbo Unido at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-4
- Win rate
- 36%
- Goals for / match
- 1.18
- Goals against / match
- 0.91
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 11
- They have won 8 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 21 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 21 matches.
Colo Colo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-1-1
- Win rate
- 82%
- Goals for / match
- 1.82
- Goals against / match
- 1.09
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 11
- They have won 17 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 22 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 9 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Coquimbo Unido at home only, Colo Colo away only.
Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Coquimbo Unido 1 · draws 0 · Colo Colo 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Colo Colo | 3-1 | Coquimbo Unido | Chile Primera División |
| 2025-10-19 | Coquimbo Unido | 1-0 | Colo Colo | Chile Primera División |
| 2025-04-26 | Colo Colo | 2-0 | Coquimbo Unido | Chile Primera División |
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