Concepción vs Union La Calera: model vs market
| Source | Concepción | Draw | Union La Calera |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62% | 27% | 11% |
| Market | 45% | 29% | 26% |
| Published | 49% | 28% | 22% |
| Edge | +17% | -2% | -15% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 0.51.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Concepción below the model: +16.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.15, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Concepción vs Union La Calera odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Concepción, 22 snapshots since 2026-09-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Concepción | 2.03 | 2.03 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.20 | 3.17 | -0.03 |
| Union La Calera | 3.62 | 3.56 | -0.06 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Concepción and Union La Calera expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.06
- Attack rating (Concepción / Union La Calera)
- 0.97 / 0.68
- Defence rating (Concepción / Union La Calera)
- 0.66 / 1.01
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Concepción vs Union La Calera score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Concepción goals. Columns: Union La Calera goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Concepción vs Union La Calera goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 33%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Concepción vs Union La Calera
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Concepción | 49% | 2.02 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.52 | |
| Union La Calera | 22% | 4.52 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34% | 2.94 |
| Under 2.5 | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 33% | 3.07 |
| No | 67% | 1.48 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Concepción or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Union La Calera) | 51% | 1.98 | |
| Handicap -1 | Concepción win by 2+ | 34% | 2.91 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 28% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Concepción and Union La Calera recent form
Concepción
3W 2D 1L
Union La Calera
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Concepción at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-3-4
- Win rate
- 42%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.08
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 12
- They have won 9 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 22 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 11 penalties (73%).
Union La Calera away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-7
- Win rate
- 18%
- Goals for / match
- 0.55
- Goals against / match
- 1.82
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 11
- They have won 5 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 22 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Concepción at home only, Union La Calera away only.
Concepción vs Union La Calera head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Concepción 0 · draws 0 · Union La Calera 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-14 | Union La Calera | 1-0 | Concepción | Chile Primera División |
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