Deportes Limache vs Palestino: model vs market
| Source | Deportes Limache | Draw | Palestino |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 25% | 31% |
| Market | 43% | 25% | 31% |
| Published | 43% | 25% | 31% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.21, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Deportes Limache vs Palestino odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Deportes Limache, 22 snapshots since 2026-09-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deportes Limache | 2.12 | 2.12 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.60 | +0.00 |
| Palestino | 2.98 | 2.94 | -0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Deportes Limache and Palestino expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.22
- Attack rating (Deportes Limache / Palestino)
- 1.10 / 1.12
- Defence rating (Deportes Limache / Palestino)
- 1.14 / 1.01
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Deportes Limache vs Palestino score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Deportes Limache goals. Columns: Palestino goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Deportes Limache vs Palestino goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Deportes Limache vs Palestino
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportes Limache | 43% | 2.31 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.94 | |
| Palestino | 31% | 3.20 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.66 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.55 |
| No | 35% | 2.83 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Deportes Limache or draw) | 69% | 1.45 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Palestino) | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportes Limache win by 2+ | 24% | 4.23 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Deportes Limache and Palestino recent form
Deportes Limache
3W 0D 3L
Palestino
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Deportes Limache at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-0-4
- Win rate
- 64%
- Goals for / match
- 2.09
- Goals against / match
- 1.18
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 11
- They have won 10 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 22 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Palestino away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-7
- Win rate
- 36%
- Goals for / match
- 0.91
- Goals against / match
- 1.82
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 11
- They have won 11 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 22 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 7 penalties (43%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Deportes Limache at home only, Palestino away only.
Deportes Limache vs Palestino head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Deportes Limache 0 · draws 0 · Palestino 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Palestino | 1-0 | Deportes Limache | Chile Primera División |
| 2025-11-03 | Palestino | 2-1 | Deportes Limache | Chile Primera División |
| 2025-05-18 | Deportes Limache | 0-1 | Palestino | Chile Primera División |
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