Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena: model vs market
| Source | Everton de Vina | Draw | D. La Serena |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 68% | 18% | 14% |
| Market | 53% | 24% | 22% |
| Published | 57% | 23% | 20% |
| Edge | +15% | -6% | -9% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.60 vs 1.12.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Everton de Vina below the model: +15.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.78, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Everton de Vina, 22 snapshots since 2026-09-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Everton de Vina | 1.73 | 1.73 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.79 | 3.77 | -0.02 |
| D. La Serena | 4.19 | 4.16 | -0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Everton de Vina and D. La Serena expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.73
- Attack rating (Everton de Vina / D. La Serena)
- 1.37 / 1.12
- Defence rating (Everton de Vina / D. La Serena)
- 0.87 / 1.21
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Everton de Vina goals. Columns: D. La Serena goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Everton de Vina | 57% | 1.75 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.38 | |
| D. La Serena | 20% | 4.99 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72% | 1.39 |
| Under 2.5 | 28% | 3.56 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.58 |
| No | 37% | 2.72 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Everton de Vina or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or D. La Serena) | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Handicap -1 | Everton de Vina win by 2+ | 48% | 2.09 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Everton de Vina and D. La Serena recent form
Everton de Vina
4W 1D 1L
D. La Serena
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Everton de Vina at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-4-5
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.08
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 12
- They have won 8 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.1 at home.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 22 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
D. La Serena away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-5-3
- Win rate
- 27%
- Goals for / match
- 1.36
- Goals against / match
- 1.82
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 11
- They have won 7 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 22 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Everton de Vina at home only, D. La Serena away only.
Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Everton de Vina 1 · draws 0 · D. La Serena 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | D. La Serena | 1-0 | Everton de Vina | Chile Primera División |
| 2025-08-28 | Everton de Vina | 3-1 | D. La Serena | Chile Primera División |
| 2025-04-13 | D. La Serena | 2-1 | Everton de Vina | Chile Primera División |
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