Updated

China Super League · Matchday 30

Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Tongliang Long

· Beijing Workers' Stadium, Beijing

Full time1 – 0

Alin prediction was Beijing Guoan to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 0

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Beijing GuoanDrawChongqing Tongliang Long

Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Tongliang Long: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBeijing GuoanDrawChongqing Tongliang Long
Model67%22%12%
Market72%17%10%
Published71%18%11%
Edge-1%+1%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 0.73.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Tongliang Long odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Beijing Guoan, 12 snapshots since 2026-11-02.

Opened 1.29Now 1.29 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Beijing Guoan1.291.29+0.00
Draw5.005.40+0.40
Chongqing Tongliang Long9.109.00-0.10

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Beijing Guoan and Chongqing Tongliang Long expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.02Beijing Guoan
0.73Chongqing Tongliang Long
Total expected goals
2.75
Attack rating (Beijing Guoan / Chongqing Tongliang Long)
1.34 / 0.71
Defence rating (Beijing Guoan / Chongqing Tongliang Long)
0.74 / 0.85

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Tongliang Long score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.4% 3.7% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 1 12.0% 10.4% 3.4% 0.8% 0.2% 2 13.0% 9.5% 3.5% 0.8% 0.2% 3 8.8% 6.4% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1% 4+ 7.0% 5.1% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1%

Rows: Beijing Guoan goals. Columns: Chongqing Tongliang Long goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Tongliang Long goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 52%
Over 3.5 30%
Both teams to score
46%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Tongliang Long

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Beijing Guoan71%1.41
Draw18%5.42
Chongqing Tongliang Long11%9.35
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.552%1.93
Under 2.548%2.07
Both teams to scoreYes46%2.18
No54%1.85
Double chance1X (Beijing Guoan or draw)89%1.12
12 (either side)82%1.23
X2 (draw or Chongqing Tongliang Long)29%3.43
Handicap -1Beijing Guoan win by 2+42%2.36
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Beijing Guoan and Chongqing Tongliang Long recent form

Beijing Guoan 3W 3D 0L
Chongqing Tongliang Long 1W 3D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Beijing Guoan at home

Record (W-D-L)
7-4-3
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.29
Clean sheets
5 of 14
  • They have won 14 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
  • 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Chongqing Tongliang Long away

Record (W-D-L)
3-6-5
Win rate
21%
Goals for / match
0.79
Goals against / match
1.14
Clean sheets
4 of 14
  • They have won 8 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 29 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
  • 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Beijing Guoan at home only, Chongqing Tongliang Long away only.

Expected lineups

Beijing Guoan lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 34 Hou Sen
  2. 47 Deng Jiefu
  3. 5 Guilherme Ramos
  4. 25 Uroš Spajić
  5. 27 Gang Wang
  6. 11 Lin Liangming
  7. 7 Sai Erjini'ao
  8. 8 Aboubacar Konte
  9. 37 Yongjing Cao
  10. 9 Zhang Yuning
  11. 10 Zhang Xizhe

Bench: Li Lei, Chi Zhongguo, Wang Yu, Tze-Nam Yue, Han Jiaqi, Abdugheni Abduhamit, Yang Bai, Shuangjie Fan, Feifan Jia, Cheng Xi, Xia Xiaoyu, Zicheng Jiang

Chongqing Tongliang Long lineup · 5-4-1

  1. 1 Haoyang Yao
  2. 26 Xiaoqiang He
  3. 33 Lucão
  4. 32 Michael Ngadeu
  5. 4 Ruijie Yue
  6. 38 Qilong Ruan
  7. 27 Yongqiang Wu
  8. 16 Zhixiong Zhang
  9. 10 Ibrahim Amadou
  10. 21 Jiale Liu
  11. 19 Du Yuezheng

Bench: Zhang Yingkai, Pengxiang Jin, Yuwang Xiang, Alexandru Cîmpanu, Nany Dimata, Chen Chunxin, Yu-Hei Ng, Weipeng Liang, Mingshi Liu, Yeerzhati Yeerjieti, Wu Zitong, Wei Suowei

Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Tongliang Long head-to-head

Last 1 meetings: Beijing Guoan 1 · draws 0 · Chongqing Tongliang Long 0.

Beijing GuoanDrawsChongqing Tongliang Long
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-30Chongqing Tongliang Long2-3Beijing GuoanChina Super League

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