Updated

China Super League · Matchday 30

Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye

· Huizhou Olympic Stadium, Huizhou· Referee Jianxin Du, China

Full time4 – 0

Alin prediction was Hangzhou Greentown to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Hangzhou GreentownDrawHenan Jianye

Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceHangzhou GreentownDrawHenan Jianye
Model57%19%24%
Market49%22%29%
Published51%22%28%
Edge+2%-1%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.66 vs 1.74.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Hangzhou Greentown below our published probability: +2.0 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Hangzhou Greentown, 12 snapshots since 2026-11-02.

Opened 2.03Now 1.90 -0.12
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Hangzhou Greentown2.031.90-0.12
Draw4.054.15+0.10
Henan Jianye2.903.22+0.32

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Hangzhou Greentown and Henan Jianye expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.66Hangzhou Greentown
1.74Henan Jianye
Total expected goals
4.40
Attack rating (Hangzhou Greentown / Henan Jianye)
1.34 / 0.95
Defence rating (Hangzhou Greentown / Henan Jianye)
1.32 / 1.11

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 1.8% 1.6% 1.9% 1.1% 0.7% 1 2.7% 6.3% 5.0% 2.9% 1.8% 2 4.4% 7.6% 6.6% 3.8% 2.5% 3 3.9% 6.7% 5.8% 3.4% 2.2% 4+ 4.9% 8.4% 7.3% 4.3% 2.7%

Rows: Hangzhou Greentown goals. Columns: Henan Jianye goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 94%
Over 2.5 81%
Over 3.5 64%
Both teams to score
77%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Hangzhou Greentown51%1.97
Draw22%4.63
Henan Jianye28%3.62
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.581%1.23
Under 2.519%5.39
Both teams to scoreYes77%1.29
No23%4.39
Double chance1X (Hangzhou Greentown or draw)72%1.38
12 (either side)78%1.28
X2 (draw or Henan Jianye)49%2.03
Handicap -1Hangzhou Greentown win by 2+38%2.63
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Hangzhou Greentown and Henan Jianye recent form

Hangzhou Greentown 3W 0D 3L
Henan Jianye 0W 4D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Hangzhou Greentown at home

Record (W-D-L)
7-3-4
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
2.14
Goals against / match
1.57
Clean sheets
3 of 14
  • They have won 11 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 29 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 8 penalties (75%).
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Henan Jianye away

Record (W-D-L)
4-5-5
Win rate
29%
Goals for / match
1.36
Goals against / match
1.71
Clean sheets
1 of 14
  • They have won 8 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Hangzhou Greentown at home only, Henan Jianye away only.

Expected lineups

Hangzhou Greentown lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 33 Bo Zhao
  2. 26 Guowen Sun
  3. 36 Lucas Possignolo
  4. 5 Liu Haofan
  5. 16 Tong Lei
  6. 4 Jin-seob Park
  7. 22 Cheng Jin
  8. 28 Alexandru Mitriță
  9. 10 Marko Tolić
  10. 11 Wang Yudong
  11. 27 Felippe Cardoso

Bench: Chunyu Dong, Wang Chang, Bao Shengxin, Qianglong Tao, Alexander N'Doumbou, Di Gao, Wei Wu, Shiqin Wang, Hao Fang, Xu Junchi, Jiaqi Zhang, Zhang Aihui

Henan Jianye lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 17 Jinshuai Wang
  2. 11 Nebijan Muhmet
  3. 3 Oliver Gerbig
  4. 2 Iago Maidana
  5. 4 Yeljan Shinar
  6. 6 Shangyuan Wang
  7. 15 Abraham Halik
  8. 7 Yihao Zhong
  9. 10 Bruno Nazário
  10. 8 Maranhão
  11. 30 Xulin Fan

Bench: Abdurasul Abudulam, Kuo Yang, Gouming Wang, Congyao Yin, Yilin Yang, Jiamin Xu, Yixin Liu, Changjie Du, Chenglong Shi, Osman Ekber

Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Hangzhou Greentown 3 · draws 3 · Henan Jianye 4.

Hangzhou GreentownDrawsHenan Jianye
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-30Henan Jianye0-2Hangzhou GreentownChina Super League
2025-10-25Henan Jianye2-2Hangzhou GreentownChina Super League
2025-06-22Henan Jianye3-2Hangzhou GreentownFA Cup
2025-05-16Hangzhou Greentown2-2Henan JianyeChina Super League
2024-07-21Henan Jianye2-1Hangzhou GreentownSuper League
2024-04-30Hangzhou Greentown4-1Henan JianyeSuper League
2023-09-30Hangzhou Greentown3-0Henan JianyeSuper League
2023-06-09Henan Jianye2-2Hangzhou GreentownSuper League
2022-07-03Hangzhou Greentown0-1Henan JianyeSuper League
2022-06-11Henan Jianye3-1Hangzhou GreentownSuper League

Other Matchday 30 fixtures