Updated

China Super League · Matchday 30

Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns

· Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium, Yuxi

Full time2 – 1

Alin prediction was Yunnan Yukun to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Yunnan YukunDrawWuhan Three Towns

Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceYunnan YukunDrawWuhan Three Towns
Model51%19%30%
Market60%19%21%
Published58%19%23%
Edge-2%0%+2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.62 vs 2.02.
  • Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Yunnan Yukun, 12 snapshots since 2026-11-02.

Opened 1.64Now 1.54 -0.10
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Yunnan Yukun1.641.54-0.10
Draw4.604.78+0.18
Wuhan Three Towns3.954.50+0.55

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Yunnan Yukun and Wuhan Three Towns expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.62Yunnan Yukun
2.02Wuhan Three Towns
Total expected goals
4.64
Attack rating (Yunnan Yukun / Wuhan Three Towns)
1.17 / 1.02
Defence rating (Yunnan Yukun / Wuhan Three Towns)
1.42 / 1.25

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 1.5% 1.4% 2.0% 1.3% 1.1% 1 2.0% 5.6% 5.2% 3.5% 2.8% 2 3.3% 6.7% 6.8% 4.6% 3.7% 3 2.9% 5.8% 5.9% 4.0% 3.2% 4+ 3.5% 7.2% 7.2% 4.9% 3.9%

Rows: Yunnan Yukun goals. Columns: Wuhan Three Towns goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 99%
Over 1.5 95%
Over 2.5 84%
Over 3.5 68%
Both teams to score
81%
No goals (0–0)
1%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Yunnan Yukun58%1.73
Draw19%5.15
Wuhan Three Towns23%4.38
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.584%1.19
Under 2.516%6.30
Both teams to scoreYes81%1.24
No19%5.24
Double chance1X (Yunnan Yukun or draw)77%1.30
12 (either side)81%1.24
X2 (draw or Wuhan Three Towns)42%2.37
Handicap -1Yunnan Yukun win by 2+33%3.05
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Yunnan Yukun and Wuhan Three Towns recent form

Yunnan Yukun 1W 3D 2L
Wuhan Three Towns 0W 3D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Yunnan Yukun at home

Record (W-D-L)
8-3-3
Win rate
57%
Goals for / match
2.29
Goals against / match
1.43
Clean sheets
4 of 14
  • They have won 11 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 29 matches.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Wuhan Three Towns away

Record (W-D-L)
1-7-6
Win rate
7%
Goals for / match
1.57
Goals against / match
2.21
Clean sheets
0 of 14
  • They have won 5 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 29 matches.
  • They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Yunnan Yukun at home only, Wuhan Three Towns away only.

Expected lineups

Yunnan Yukun lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 24 Jianxian Yu
  2. 21 Zihao Yang
  3. 33 Andrei Burcă
  4. 26 Chenliang Zhang
  5. 3 Wang-Kit Tsui
  6. 34 Caio Vinícius
  7. 8 Xin Xu
  8. 10 Alexandru Ioniță
  9. 11 Oscar Taty Maritu
  10. 9 Cléber
  11. 39 Bunyamin Abdusalam

Bench: Yaxiong Bao, Ruibao Hu, Ke Shi, Yuhao Zhao, Chugui Ye, Shengjun Qiu, Zhang Xiangshuo, Sun Xuelong, Liuyu Duan, Zilong Han, John Hou Sæter, Ernanduo Fei

Wuhan Three Towns lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 31 Guo Jiayu
  2. 28 Denny Wang Yi
  3. 11 Ang Li
  4. 2 Guan He
  5. 23 Ming Tian
  6. 10 Kilian Bevis
  7. 20 Adriano Firmino
  8. 18 Xiaobing Zhang
  9. 50 Antoine Leautey
  10. 29 Jhonder Cádiz
  11. 21 Jizheng Xiong

Bench: Shenyuan Li, Wei Long, Jinxian Wang, Zheng Haoqian, Kaimu Zheng, Yiming Liu, Jingqi Fang, Binbin Liu, Li Zihao

Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns head-to-head

Last 3 meetings: Yunnan Yukun 1 · draws 1 · Wuhan Three Towns 1.

Yunnan YukunDrawsWuhan Three Towns
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-31Wuhan Three Towns1-1Yunnan YukunChina Super League
2025-08-15Yunnan Yukun2-1Wuhan Three TownsChina Super League
2025-04-12Wuhan Three Towns3-1Yunnan YukunChina Super League

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