Updated

China Super League · Matchday 30

SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shenyang Urban

· Pudong Football Stadium, Shanghai· Referee Yunkun Ma, China

Full time6 – 1

Alin prediction was SHANGHAI SIPG to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
SHANGHAI SIPGDrawShenyang Urban

SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shenyang Urban: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSHANGHAI SIPGDrawShenyang Urban
Model72%17%11%
Market73%16%11%
Published73%16%11%
Edge0%0%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.73 vs 1.03.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shenyang Urban odds movement

Median bookmaker price on SHANGHAI SIPG, 12 snapshots since 2026-11-02.

Opened 1.26Now 1.27 +0.01
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
SHANGHAI SIPG1.261.27+0.01
Draw5.805.88+0.08
Shenyang Urban8.908.46-0.45

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

SHANGHAI SIPG and Shenyang Urban expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.73SHANGHAI SIPG
1.03Shenyang Urban
Total expected goals
3.76
Attack rating (SHANGHAI SIPG / Shenyang Urban)
1.24 / 1.01
Defence rating (SHANGHAI SIPG / Shenyang Urban)
0.73 / 1.23

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shenyang Urban score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.0% 1.8% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 1 5.7% 7.2% 3.4% 1.2% 0.4% 2 8.7% 8.9% 4.6% 1.6% 0.5% 3 7.9% 8.1% 4.2% 1.4% 0.5% 4+ 10.4% 10.7% 5.5% 1.9% 0.6%

Rows: SHANGHAI SIPG goals. Columns: Shenyang Urban goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shenyang Urban goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 90%
Over 2.5 72%
Over 3.5 52%
Both teams to score
61%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shenyang Urban

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2SHANGHAI SIPG73%1.37
Draw16%6.26
Shenyang Urban11%9.09
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.572%1.38
Under 2.528%3.63
Both teams to scoreYes61%1.64
No39%2.55
Double chance1X (SHANGHAI SIPG or draw)89%1.12
12 (either side)84%1.19
X2 (draw or Shenyang Urban)27%3.71
Handicap -1SHANGHAI SIPG win by 2+52%1.91
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

SHANGHAI SIPG and Shenyang Urban recent form

SHANGHAI SIPG 5W 1D 0L
Shenyang Urban 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

SHANGHAI SIPG at home

Record (W-D-L)
6-5-3
Win rate
43%
Goals for / match
1.71
Goals against / match
0.93
Clean sheets
4 of 14
  • They have won 13 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 29 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).

Shenyang Urban away

Record (W-D-L)
2-3-9
Win rate
14%
Goals for / match
1.07
Goals against / match
1.79
Clean sheets
2 of 14
  • They have won 8 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 29 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
  • 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: SHANGHAI SIPG at home only, Shenyang Urban away only.

Expected lineups

SHANGHAI SIPG lineup · 3-4-3

  1. 1 Yan Junling
  2. 40 Yusup Umidjan
  3. 3 Guangtai Jiang
  4. 13 Zhen Wei
  5. 32 Shuai Li
  6. 10 Mateus Vital
  7. 21 Óscar Melendo
  8. 22 Xi Yang
  9. 17 Prince Ampem
  10. 45 Leonardo
  11. 7 Wu Lei

Bench: Wang Shenchao, Zhang Linpeng, Yuan Zhang, Jean Claude Aziangbe, Chen Wei, Matthew Orr, Wang Zhenao, Yang Shiyuan, Fu Huan, Shimeng Bao, Lu Yongtao, Xinxiang Li

Shenyang Urban lineup · 3-4-3

  1. 16 Wang Tian'ai
  2. 3 Ximing Pan
  3. 35 Li Haoran
  4. 34 Zhang Hongfu
  5. 11 Binbin Chen
  6. 36 De'ao Tian
  7. 18 Tixiang Li
  8. 5 Dilmurat Mawlanyaz
  9. 47 Jeffinho
  10. 9 Guy Mbenza
  11. 10 Takahiro Kunimoto

Bench: Ange Kouamé, Dinghao Yan, Jintian Xie, Zang Yifeng, Yuda Tian, Mingyu Wu, Liu Guobo, Jiarun Gao, Pang Shenghan, Yinong Tian

SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shenyang Urban head-to-head

Last 1 meetings: SHANGHAI SIPG 0 · draws 0 · Shenyang Urban 1.

SHANGHAI SIPGDrawsShenyang Urban
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-29Shenyang Urban3-2SHANGHAI SIPGChina Super League

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