Updated

China Super League · Matchday 30

Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu

· Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Qingdao

Full time2 – 2

Alin prediction was Sichuan Jiuniu to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Qingdao JonoonDrawSichuan Jiuniu

Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceQingdao JonoonDrawSichuan Jiuniu
Model20%24%57%
Market20%22%59%
Published20%22%58%
Edge0%+1%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.95 vs 1.09.
  • Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Sichuan Jiuniu, 12 snapshots since 2026-11-02.

Opened 1.57Now 1.58 +0.01
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Qingdao Jonoon4.974.75-0.22
Draw4.304.33+0.03
Sichuan Jiuniu1.571.58+0.01

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Qingdao Jonoon and Sichuan Jiuniu expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.09Qingdao Jonoon
1.95Sichuan Jiuniu
Total expected goals
3.04
Attack rating (Qingdao Jonoon / Sichuan Jiuniu)
0.56 / 0.91
Defence rating (Qingdao Jonoon / Sichuan Jiuniu)
1.55 / 1.08

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.8% 8.3% 9.1% 5.9% 4.5% 1 4.2% 11.2% 9.9% 6.5% 4.9% 2 2.8% 5.5% 5.4% 3.5% 2.7% 3 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.3% 1.0% 4+ 0.4% 0.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.3%

Rows: Qingdao Jonoon goals. Columns: Sichuan Jiuniu goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 82%
Over 2.5 59%
Over 3.5 36%
Both teams to score
58%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Qingdao Jonoon20%5.09
Draw22%4.52
Sichuan Jiuniu58%1.72
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.559%1.71
Under 2.541%2.42
Both teams to scoreYes58%1.73
No42%2.38
Double chance1X (Qingdao Jonoon or draw)42%2.40
12 (either side)78%1.28
X2 (draw or Sichuan Jiuniu)80%1.24
Handicap -1Sichuan Jiuniu win by 2+34%2.93
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Qingdao Jonoon and Sichuan Jiuniu recent form

Qingdao Jonoon 0W 0D 6L
Sichuan Jiuniu 1W 3D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Qingdao Jonoon at home

Record (W-D-L)
5-2-7
Win rate
36%
Goals for / match
1.29
Goals against / match
1.86
Clean sheets
2 of 14
  • They have won 6 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 29 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

Sichuan Jiuniu away

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-10
Win rate
14%
Goals for / match
0.86
Goals against / match
2.21
Clean sheets
0 of 14
  • They have won 9 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 29 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Qingdao Jonoon at home only, Sichuan Jiuniu away only.

Expected lineups

Qingdao Jonoon lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 28 Pengfei Mu
  2. 29 Suda Li
  3. 33 Liu Jiashen
  4. 4 Yangyang Jin
  5. 17 Qiao Wang
  6. 31 Senwen Luo
  7. 8 Chuangyi Lin
  8. 34 Yonghao Jin
  9. 19 Song Wenjie
  10. 7 Yaw Yeboah
  11. 10 Carlos Strandberg

Bench: Jun Liu, Junshuai Liu, Xinyu Liu, Zheng'ao Sun, Hailong Li, Ruicong Gong, Liu Guobao, Cong Yang, Ngan Cheuk Pan, Shiwei Che, Zixian Wei, Mewlan Jappar

Sichuan Jiuniu lineup · 4-1-4-1

  1. 13 Peng Peng
  2. 20 Zhijian Xuan
  3. 46 Huanming Shen
  4. 3 Gabriel Xavier
  5. 16 Miao Tang
  6. 10 Dai Wai Tsun
  7. 11 Albion Ademi
  8. 36 Eden Karzev
  9. 8 Tim Chow
  10. 31 Deabeas Owusu-Sekyere
  11. 7 Wesley Moraes

Bench: Jiabao Ji, Tian Yifan, Junsheng Yao, Li Long, Li Ning, Zhang Yufeng, Yiming Yang, Dalong Xia, Minzhe Wei, Menghui Yu, Yao Junyi, Yuheng Wang

Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu head-to-head

Last 7 meetings: Qingdao Jonoon 3 · draws 0 · Sichuan Jiuniu 4.

Qingdao JonoonDrawsSichuan Jiuniu
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-30Sichuan Jiuniu3-2Qingdao JonoonChina Super League
2025-07-19Sichuan Jiuniu4-0Qingdao JonoonChina Super League
2025-03-01Qingdao Jonoon0-1Sichuan JiuniuChina Super League
2024-08-17Qingdao Jonoon1-0Sichuan JiuniuSuper League
2024-04-26Sichuan Jiuniu1-3Qingdao JonoonSuper League
2022-09-19Sichuan Jiuniu0-2Qingdao JonoonLeague One
2022-09-04Qingdao Jonoon1-2Sichuan JiuniuLeague One

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