Updated

China Super League · Matchday 30

Dalian Zhixing vs Tianjin Teda

· Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium, Dalian

Full time3 – 1

Alin prediction was Dalian Zhixing to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Dalian ZhixingDrawTianjin Teda

Dalian Zhixing vs Tianjin Teda: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceDalian ZhixingDrawTianjin Teda
Model49%30%21%
Market69%19%12%
Published64%22%14%
Edge-5%+3%+2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.42 vs 0.86.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Dalian Zhixing vs Tianjin Teda odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Dalian Zhixing, 12 snapshots since 2026-11-02.

Opened 1.43Now 1.35 -0.07
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Dalian Zhixing1.431.35-0.07
Draw4.504.79+0.29
Tianjin Teda7.207.85+0.65

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Dalian Zhixing and Tianjin Teda expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.42Dalian Zhixing
0.86Tianjin Teda
Total expected goals
2.28
Attack rating (Dalian Zhixing / Tianjin Teda)
1.09 / 0.86
Defence rating (Dalian Zhixing / Tianjin Teda)
0.71 / 0.73

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Dalian Zhixing vs Tianjin Teda score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.5% 7.5% 3.8% 1.1% 0.3% 1 13.3% 13.7% 5.3% 1.5% 0.4% 2 10.4% 8.9% 3.8% 1.1% 0.3% 3 4.9% 4.2% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 4+ 2.4% 2.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Dalian Zhixing goals. Columns: Tianjin Teda goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Dalian Zhixing vs Tianjin Teda goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%
Over 1.5 68%
Over 2.5 40%
Over 3.5 20%
Both teams to score
45%
No goals (0–0)
11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Dalian Zhixing vs Tianjin Teda

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Dalian Zhixing64%1.57
Draw22%4.55
Tianjin Teda14%7.02
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.540%2.51
Under 2.560%1.66
Both teams to scoreYes45%2.23
No55%1.82
Double chance1X (Dalian Zhixing or draw)86%1.17
12 (either side)78%1.28
X2 (draw or Tianjin Teda)36%2.76
Handicap -1Dalian Zhixing win by 2+25%4.02
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Dalian Zhixing and Tianjin Teda recent form

Dalian Zhixing 5W 1D 0L
Tianjin Teda 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Dalian Zhixing at home

Record (W-D-L)
10-1-3
Win rate
71%
Goals for / match
1.86
Goals against / match
1.21
Clean sheets
5 of 14
  • They have won 15 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Tianjin Teda away

Record (W-D-L)
6-4-4
Win rate
43%
Goals for / match
1.21
Goals against / match
0.86
Clean sheets
6 of 14
  • They have won 11 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 29 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
  • 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Dalian Zhixing at home only, Tianjin Teda away only.

Expected lineups

Dalian Zhixing lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 20 Weiguo Liu
  2. 12 Feng Boxuan
  3. 6 Yue Song
  4. 2 Mamadou Traoré
  5. 38 Lü Zhuoyi
  6. 4 Isnik Alimi
  7. 40 Jintao Liao
  8. 27 Yang Mingrui
  9. 10 Nicolae Stanciu
  10. 7 Luo Jing
  11. 30 Frank Acheampong

Bench: Huachen Zhang, Cephas Malele, Jiabao Wen, Peng Lü, Weijie Mao, Shan Huang, Jinhao Bi, Zihao Huang, Kangbo Sun, Haiqing Cao, Feng Jin, Lirong Xiao

Tianjin Teda lineup · 5-4-1

  1. 25 Yan Bingliang
  2. 31 Ming-Him Sun
  3. 6 Xianjun Wang
  4. 18 Aitor Córdoba
  5. 14 Jiahui Huang
  6. 3 Zhenghao Wang
  7. 9 Alberto Quiles
  8. 8 Bruno Xadas
  9. 10 Cristian Salvador
  10. 24 Chen Zhexuan
  11. 7 Guilherme Schettine

Bench: Xinghan Wu, Junxian Liu, Shengpan Ji, Qi Yuxi, Li Yongjia, Haoran Zhang, Hao Guo, Qiuming Wang, Ninglin Naibo, Shuaiqi Li, Shi Yan

Dalian Zhixing vs Tianjin Teda head-to-head

Last 3 meetings: Dalian Zhixing 0 · draws 1 · Tianjin Teda 2.

Dalian ZhixingDrawsTianjin Teda
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-31Tianjin Teda1-0Dalian ZhixingChina Super League
2025-08-16Tianjin Teda2-0Dalian ZhixingChina Super League
2025-04-12Dalian Zhixing1-1Tianjin TedaChina Super League

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