Updated

China Super League · Matchday 30

Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Youth Island

· Shanghai Stadium, Shanghai

Full time4 – 0

Alin prediction was Shanghai Shenhua to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Shanghai ShenhuaDrawQingdao Youth Island

Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Youth Island: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceShanghai ShenhuaDrawQingdao Youth Island
Model61%22%17%
Market65%19%16%
Published64%19%16%
Edge-1%+1%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 1.10.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Youth Island odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Shanghai Shenhua, 12 snapshots since 2026-11-02.

Opened 1.44Now 1.41 -0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Shanghai Shenhua1.441.41-0.03
Draw4.854.92+0.08
Qingdao Youth Island5.855.82-0.03

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Shanghai Shenhua and Qingdao Youth Island expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.17Shanghai Shenhua
1.10Qingdao Youth Island
Total expected goals
3.27
Attack rating (Shanghai Shenhua / Qingdao Youth Island)
1.49 / 0.71
Defence rating (Shanghai Shenhua / Qingdao Youth Island)
1.12 / 0.82

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Youth Island score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.7% 3.3% 2.3% 0.8% 0.3% 1 7.3% 10.0% 5.0% 1.8% 0.6% 2 8.9% 9.8% 5.4% 2.0% 0.7% 3 6.5% 7.1% 3.9% 1.4% 0.5% 4+ 5.8% 6.4% 3.5% 1.3% 0.5%

Rows: Shanghai Shenhua goals. Columns: Qingdao Youth Island goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Youth Island goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 85%
Over 2.5 64%
Over 3.5 41%
Both teams to score
60%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Youth Island

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Shanghai Shenhua64%1.56
Draw19%5.13
Qingdao Youth Island16%6.16
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.564%1.57
Under 2.536%2.74
Both teams to scoreYes60%1.67
No40%2.50
Double chance1X (Shanghai Shenhua or draw)84%1.19
12 (either side)81%1.24
X2 (draw or Qingdao Youth Island)36%2.80
Handicap -1Shanghai Shenhua win by 2+39%2.57
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Shanghai Shenhua and Qingdao Youth Island recent form

Shanghai Shenhua 4W 0D 2L
Qingdao Youth Island 1W 3D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Shanghai Shenhua at home

Record (W-D-L)
7-2-5
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
2.43
Goals against / match
1.79
Clean sheets
2 of 14
  • They have won 14 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 29 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Qingdao Youth Island away

Record (W-D-L)
3-6-5
Win rate
21%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.71
Clean sheets
3 of 14
  • They have won 8 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 29 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Shanghai Shenhua at home only, Qingdao Youth Island away only.

Expected lineups

Shanghai Shenhua lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 Qinghao Xue
  2. 16 Zexiang Yang
  3. 26 Shuai Yang
  4. 4 Shenglong Jiang
  5. 13 Wilson Manafá
  6. 30 Xie Pengfei
  7. 33 Haijian Wang
  8. 17 Tianyi Gao
  9. 19 Luís Asué
  10. 21 Haoyang Xu
  11. 10 João Carlos Teixeira

Bench: Shilong Wang, Jin Shunkai, Songyi Li, Rafael Ratão, Wu Xi, Zhen Ma, Zhu Yue, Sun Dongyang, Haoyu Yang, Jiawen Han

Qingdao Youth Island lineup · 4-1-4-1

  1. 16 Hao Li
  2. 22 Gengrui Wang
  3. 15 Peng Wang
  4. 2 Bruno Viana
  5. 19 Yu Dong
  6. 28 Chengdong Zhang
  7. 11 Davidson
  8. 25 Xinli Peng
  9. 8 Xiuwei Zhang
  10. 10 Nelson Luz
  11. 9 Aziz

Bench: Honglüe Zhao, Elnizar Lohman, Barak Braunshtain, Longhai He, Jingchao Meng, Shibo Liu, Aifeierding Aisikaer, Jia Weiwei, Yang Zhanpeng, Xie Chujun, Haifeng Ding, Song Nan

Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Youth Island head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Shanghai Shenhua 4 · draws 1 · Qingdao Youth Island 0.

Shanghai ShenhuaDrawsQingdao Youth Island
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-30Qingdao Youth Island2-2Shanghai ShenhuaChina Super League
2025-10-17Qingdao Youth Island1-2Shanghai ShenhuaChina Super League
2025-05-10Shanghai Shenhua4-0Qingdao Youth IslandChina Super League
2024-06-30Qingdao Youth Island0-1Shanghai ShenhuaSuper League
2024-03-08Shanghai Shenhua2-0Qingdao Youth IslandSuper League

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