Updated

China Super League · Matchday 30

Shandong Luneng vs Chengdu Better City

· Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Jinan

Full time3 – 2

Alin prediction was Shandong Luneng to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 0

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Shandong LunengDrawChengdu Better City

Shandong Luneng vs Chengdu Better City: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceShandong LunengDrawChengdu Better City
Model68%19%13%
Market38%25%37%
Published45%24%31%
Edge+8%-2%-6%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.44 vs 1.00.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Shandong Luneng below our published probability: +7.6 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Shandong Luneng vs Chengdu Better City odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Shandong Luneng, 12 snapshots since 2026-11-02.

Opened 2.31Now 2.46 +0.15
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Shandong Luneng2.312.46+0.15
Draw3.893.67-0.22
Chengdu Better City2.632.54-0.10

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Shandong Luneng and Chengdu Better City expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.44Shandong Luneng
1.00Chengdu Better City
Total expected goals
3.44
Attack rating (Shandong Luneng / Chengdu Better City)
1.39 / 0.75
Defence rating (Shandong Luneng / Chengdu Better City)
0.95 / 0.98

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Shandong Luneng vs Chengdu Better City score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.0% 2.4% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% 1 7.1% 8.6% 3.9% 1.3% 0.4% 2 9.6% 9.5% 4.8% 1.6% 0.5% 3 7.8% 7.8% 3.9% 1.3% 0.4% 4+ 8.5% 8.5% 4.2% 1.4% 0.4%

Rows: Shandong Luneng goals. Columns: Chengdu Better City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Shandong Luneng vs Chengdu Better City goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 87%
Over 2.5 67%
Over 3.5 45%
Both teams to score
58%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Shandong Luneng vs Chengdu Better City

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Shandong Luneng45%2.20
Draw24%4.21
Chengdu Better City31%3.25
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.567%1.50
Under 2.533%3.01
Both teams to scoreYes58%1.71
No42%2.40
Double chance1X (Shandong Luneng or draw)69%1.44
12 (either side)76%1.31
X2 (draw or Chengdu Better City)55%1.83
Handicap -1Shandong Luneng win by 2+47%2.13
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Shandong Luneng and Chengdu Better City recent form

Shandong Luneng 3W 2D 1L
Chengdu Better City 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Shandong Luneng at home

Record (W-D-L)
8-4-2
Win rate
57%
Goals for / match
2.43
Goals against / match
1.29
Clean sheets
2 of 14
  • They have won 15 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 29 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).

Chengdu Better City away

Record (W-D-L)
7-4-3
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.43
Goals against / match
1.36
Clean sheets
3 of 14
  • They have won 15 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 29 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 9 matches.
  • They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Shandong Luneng at home only, Chengdu Better City away only.

Expected lineups

Shandong Luneng lineup · 3-4-3

  1. 14 Dalei Wang
  2. 11 Yang Liu
  3. 23 Pedro Álvaro
  4. 3 Peng Xiao
  5. 29 Chen Pu
  6. 22 Yuanyi Li
  7. 8 Guilherme Madruga
  8. 7 Wenneng Xie
  9. 10 Valeri Qazaishvili
  10. 19 Zeca
  11. 9 Cryzan

Bench: Yu Jinyong, Yang Ruiqi, Tong Wang, Raphaël Merkies, Maiwulang Mijiti, Qihang Sun, Zhunyi Gao, Jiaxi Yin, Zhengyu Huang, Qiwei Liu, Memet Imran

Chengdu Better City lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 32 Liu Dianzuo
  2. 2 Hu Hetao
  3. 28 Egor Sorokin
  4. 18 Han Pengfei
  5. 4 He Yiran
  6. 5 Matheus Jussa
  7. 16 Yang Ming-Yang
  8. 27 Baihelamu Abuduwaili
  9. 10 Rômulo
  10. 11 Wellington Silva
  11. 9 Felipe Silva

Bench: Tao Jian, Feng Zhuoyi, Weifeng Ran, Wang Dongsheng, Dong Yanfeng, Wang Ziming, Yang Li, Liao Lisheng, Mirahmetjan Muzepper, Iminqari Mutallep, Gan Chao, Liao Rongxiang

Shandong Luneng vs Chengdu Better City head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Shandong Luneng 3 · draws 1 · Chengdu Better City 6.

Shandong LunengDrawsChengdu Better City
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-30Chengdu Better City1-0Shandong LunengChina Super League
2025-08-02Chengdu Better City2-1Shandong LunengChina Super League
2025-06-20Shandong Luneng1-3Chengdu Better CityFA Cup
2025-04-02Shandong Luneng0-3Chengdu Better CityChina Super League
2024-09-24Shandong Luneng1-0Chengdu Better CityFA Cup
2024-08-17Shandong Luneng3-0Chengdu Better CitySuper League
2024-04-26Chengdu Better City0-1Shandong LunengSuper League
2023-08-08Shandong Luneng0-1Chengdu Better CitySuper League
2023-05-10Chengdu Better City2-2Shandong LunengSuper League
2022-11-21Chengdu Better City2-1Shandong LunengSuper League

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