Inter San Carlos vs LD Alajuelense: model vs market
| Source | Inter San Carlos | Draw | LD Alajuelense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30% | 28% | 41% |
| Market | 31% | 28% | 41% |
| Published | 31% | 28% | 41% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Inter San Carlos vs LD Alajuelense odds movement
Median bookmaker price on LD Alajuelense, 5 snapshots since 2026-10-15.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inter San Carlos | 3.00 | 2.96 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 3.25 | 3.23 | -0.02 |
| LD Alajuelense | 2.17 | 2.19 | +0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Inter San Carlos and LD Alajuelense expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.65
- Attack rating (Inter San Carlos / LD Alajuelense)
- 0.92 / 1.24
- Defence rating (Inter San Carlos / LD Alajuelense)
- 1.06 / 0.94
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Inter San Carlos vs LD Alajuelense score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Inter San Carlos goals. Columns: LD Alajuelense goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Inter San Carlos vs LD Alajuelense goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Inter San Carlos vs LD Alajuelense
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Inter San Carlos | 31% | 3.28 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.55 | |
| LD Alajuelense | 41% | 2.42 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.98 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.82 |
| No | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Inter San Carlos or draw) | 59% | 1.71 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or LD Alajuelense) | 69% | 1.44 | |
| Handicap -1 | LD Alajuelense win by 2+ | 20% | 4.90 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Inter San Carlos and LD Alajuelense recent form
Inter San Carlos
2W 2D 2L
LD Alajuelense
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Inter San Carlos at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-0
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
LD Alajuelense away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-1
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Inter San Carlos at home only, LD Alajuelense away only.
Inter San Carlos vs LD Alajuelense head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Inter San Carlos 0 · draws 0 · LD Alajuelense 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | LD Alajuelense | 5-0 | Inter San Carlos | Costa Rica Primera División |
Other Apertura - 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
- Inter San Carlos, previous: San Carlos vs Inter San Carlos: odds and pick
- Inter San Carlos, next: Puntarenas FC – Inter San Carlos, 2026-10-25
- LD Alajuelense, previous: LD Alajuelense v CS Herediano analysis