Sporting San Jose vs San Carlos preview
In the fixture between Sporting San Jose and San Carlos, the 1X2 probabilities show Sporting San Jose at 48%, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 at 13%. Sporting San Jose has an expected goals figure of 1.40, while San Carlos sits at 0.85.
Both teams to score sits at 45%, indicating a moderate chance for goals from both sides. Recent form shows Sporting San Jose with three wins in their last five matches, while San Carlos has four wins in the same period. A draw could disrupt the expected outcome, as could a stronger performance from San Carlos than anticipated.
Sporting San Jose vs San Carlos: model vs market
| Source | Sporting San Jose | Draw | San Carlos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 29% | 32% |
| Market | 55% | 26% | 19% |
| Published | 51% | 27% | 22% |
| Edge | -17% | +3% | +13% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.70, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Sporting San Jose vs San Carlos odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sporting San Jose, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-16.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting San Jose | 1.67 | 1.64 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 3.45 | 3.50 | +0.05 |
| San Carlos | 4.55 | 4.86 | +0.30 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sporting San Jose and San Carlos expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.53
- Attack rating (Sporting San Jose / San Carlos)
- 1.20 / 0.91
- Defence rating (Sporting San Jose / San Carlos)
- 1.18 / 0.79
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sporting San Jose vs San Carlos score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sporting San Jose goals. Columns: San Carlos goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sporting San Jose vs San Carlos goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sporting San Jose vs San Carlos
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sporting San Jose | 51% | 1.95 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.74 | |
| San Carlos | 22% | 4.55 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.16 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.90 |
| No | 47% | 2.11 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sporting San Jose or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or San Carlos) | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sporting San Jose win by 2+ | 18% | 5.46 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sporting San Jose and San Carlos recent form
Sporting San Jose
4W 0D 2L
San Carlos
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sporting San Jose at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-0
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 2.40
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
San Carlos away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-2
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sporting San Jose at home only, San Carlos away only.
Sporting San Jose vs San Carlos head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Sporting San Jose 5 · draws 1 · San Carlos 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | San Carlos | 1-0 | Sporting San Jose | Costa Rica Primera División |
| 2026-03-15 | Sporting San Jose | 1-0 | San Carlos | Costa Rica Primera División |
| 2026-01-19 | San Carlos | 3-0 | Sporting San Jose | Costa Rica Primera División |
| 2025-09-29 | San Carlos | 0-3 | Sporting San Jose | Costa Rica Primera División |
| 2025-08-16 | Sporting San Jose | 1-1 | San Carlos | Costa Rica Primera División |
| 2025-05-03 | Sporting San Jose | 1-0 | San Carlos | Primera División |
| 2025-01-21 | San Carlos | 0-1 | Sporting San Jose | Primera División |
| 2024-10-06 | San Carlos | 2-0 | Sporting San Jose | Primera División |
| 2024-08-31 | Sporting San Jose | 2-3 | San Carlos | Primera División |
| 2024-04-22 | San Carlos | 0-1 | Sporting San Jose | Primera División |
Other Apertura - 12 fixtures
- Inter San Carlos vs LD Alajuelense 2026-10-18
- CS Cartagines vs Deportivo Saprissa 2026-10-18
- Perez Zeledon vs CS Herediano — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Escorpiones Belén vs Puntarenas FC — team news & stats 2026-10-20
Before and after this match
- Sporting San Jose, previous: Deportivo Saprissa vs Sporting San Jose: odds and pick
- Sporting San Jose, next: Escorpiones Belén – Sporting San Jose, 2026-10-24
- San Carlos, previous: San Carlos vs Inter San Carlos: odds and pick