Apollon Limassol vs Pafos preview
In the upcoming match between Apollon Limassol and Pafos, the 1X2 probabilities show Apollon Limassol at 53%, while Pafos sits at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 10% probability. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are both at 62%, indicating a strong chance for a high-scoring game.
Apollon Limassol's recent form includes 3 wins and 3 draws, while Pafos has 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses. The expected goals are 1.95 for Apollon Limassol and 1.24 for Pafos. A deviation from the expected performance, such as a poor display from Apollon Limassol or an unexpectedly strong showing from Pafos, could impact the outcome.
Apollon Limassol vs Pafos: model vs market
| Source | Apollon Limassol | Draw | Pafos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60% | 22% | 18% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 60% | 22% | 18% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 1.13.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Apollon Limassol and Pafos expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.30
- Attack rating (Apollon Limassol / Pafos)
- 1.74 / 0.96
- Defence rating (Apollon Limassol / Pafos)
- 0.95 / 0.85
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Apollon Limassol vs Pafos score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Apollon Limassol goals. Columns: Pafos goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Apollon Limassol vs Pafos goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Apollon Limassol vs Pafos
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Apollon Limassol | 60% | 1.66 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.58 | |
| Pafos | 18% | 5.57 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.56 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.78 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.64 |
| No | 39% | 2.55 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Apollon Limassol or draw) | 82% | 1.22 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Pafos) | 40% | 2.51 | |
| Handicap -1 | Apollon Limassol win by 2+ | 38% | 2.61 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Apollon Limassol and Pafos recent form
Apollon Limassol
4W 2D 0L
Pafos
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Apollon Limassol at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Pafos away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 0.0 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Apollon Limassol at home only, Pafos away only.
Apollon Limassol vs Pafos head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Apollon Limassol 3 · draws 1 · Pafos 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Apollon Limassol | 2-1 | Pafos | Cyprus 1. Division |
| 2026-03-22 | Pafos | 1-1 | Apollon Limassol | Cyprus 1. Division |
| 2026-01-04 | Apollon Limassol | 2-1 | Pafos | Cyprus 1. Division |
| 2025-09-13 | Pafos | 0-1 | Apollon Limassol | Cyprus 1. Division |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
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- Krasava Ypsonas vs AEK Larnaca 2026-10-31
- Omonia Nicosia vs AEL — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Aris vs Anorthosis 2026-11-01
- Omonia 29is Maiou v Nea Salamis — match page 2026-11-01
- Omonia Aradippou vs Apoel Nicosia — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Apollon Limassol, previous: Karmiotissa vs Apollon Limassol prediction
- Pafos, previous: Nea Salamis vs Pafos: odds and pick
- Pafos, next: Twente vs Pafos prediction