Olympiakos vs Apollon Limassol preview
In the match between Olympiakos and Apollon Limassol, the 1X2 probabilities show Apollon Limassol at 53%, while Olympiakos sits at 25%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, which aligns with Apollon Limassol's stronger recent form of W-W-W-D-D.
The model also indicates a high chance of Over 2.5 goals at 70% and both teams to score at 69%. However, if Olympiakos can improve their performance, which has seen them win 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches, they could challenge the expected outcome. Their recent form of L-D-D-L-D-D may hinder their chances against a more consistent Apollon Limassol side.
Olympiakos vs Apollon Limassol: model vs market
| Source | Olympiakos | Draw | Apollon Limassol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25% | 22% | 53% |
| Market | 21% | 24% | 55% |
| Published | 22% | 23% | 55% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.16 vs 1.46.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.71, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Olympiakos vs Apollon Limassol odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Apollon Limassol, 8 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Olympiakos | 5.20 | 4.40 | -0.80 |
| Draw | 3.98 | 3.89 | -0.08 |
| Apollon Limassol | 1.56 | 1.68 | +0.12 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Olympiakos and Apollon Limassol expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.62
- Attack rating (Olympiakos / Apollon Limassol)
- 0.99 / 1.74
- Defence rating (Olympiakos / Apollon Limassol)
- 1.02 / 1.01
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Olympiakos vs Apollon Limassol score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Olympiakos goals. Columns: Apollon Limassol goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Olympiakos vs Apollon Limassol goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Olympiakos vs Apollon Limassol
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Olympiakos | 22% | 4.54 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.27 | |
| Apollon Limassol | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.35 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.45 |
| No | 31% | 3.21 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Olympiakos or draw) | 45% | 2.20 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Apollon Limassol) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| Handicap -1 | Apollon Limassol win by 2+ | 32% | 3.09 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Olympiakos and Apollon Limassol recent form
Olympiakos
0W 4D 2L
Apollon Limassol
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Olympiakos at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Apollon Limassol away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Olympiakos at home only, Apollon Limassol away only.
Olympiakos vs Apollon Limassol head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Olympiakos 0 · draws 3 · Apollon Limassol 7.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-08 | Apollon Limassol | 3-1 | Olympiakos | Cyprus 1. Division |
| 2025-10-25 | Olympiakos | 2-2 | Apollon Limassol | Cyprus 1. Division |
| 2025-08-06 | Apollon Limassol | 3-2 | Olympiakos | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2023-01-27 | Apollon Limassol | 2-1 | Olympiakos | 1. Division |
| 2022-10-21 | Olympiakos | 1-1 | Apollon Limassol | 1. Division |
| 2022-01-30 | Apollon Limassol | 2-1 | Olympiakos | 1. Division |
| 2021-10-31 | Olympiakos | 0-2 | Apollon Limassol | 1. Division |
| 2021-05-04 | Apollon Limassol | 2-2 | Olympiakos | 1. Division |
| 2021-03-21 | Olympiakos | 0-2 | Apollon Limassol | 1. Division |
| 2021-01-17 | Apollon Limassol | 2-1 | Olympiakos | 1. Division |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- AEK Larnaca vs Karmiotissa — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Nea Salamis vs Omonia Aradippou 2026-11-06
- AEL vs Krasava Ypsonas — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Anorthosis v Omonia Nicosia — match page 2026-11-08
- Apoel Nicosia vs Aris 2026-11-08
- Pafos v Omonia 29is Maiou — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Olympiakos, previous: Karmiotissa – Olympiakos, 2026-10-30
- Apollon Limassol, previous: Apollon Limassol v Pafos analysis