Updated

Cyprus 1. Division · Matchday 9

Nea Salamis vs Omonia Aradippou

· Ammochostos Stadium, Larnaca

Alin prediction Nea Salamis to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 1 – 0

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Nea SalamisDrawOmonia Aradippou
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 1.01.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Nea Salamis is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
Nea Salamis2.16 Draw3.40 Omonia Aradippou3.90

Price as of

Expected return at 2.16: -3.8% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Nea Salamis vs Omonia Aradippou preview

In the match between Nea Salamis and Omonia Aradippou, Nea Salamis has a 47% chance to win compared to Omonia Aradippou's 25%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with an 11% probability. Nea Salamis has shown mixed form lately, with a record of L-D-L-L-W-L, while Omonia Aradippou has struggled, recording L-L-L-L-D-D.

The expected goals suggest Nea Salamis will score around 1.43, while Omonia Aradippou is expected to net about 1.01. The likelihood of Over 2.5 goals stands at 44%, and both teams to score is at 50%. A draw is also a possibility with a 28% chance, which could change the expected outcome.

Nea Salamis vs Omonia Aradippou: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceNea SalamisDrawOmonia Aradippou
Model45%29%25%
Market44%29%27%
Published45%29%27%
Edge0%0%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 1.01.
  • Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.16, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Nea Salamis vs Omonia Aradippou odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Nea Salamis, 8 snapshots since 2026-11-03.

Opened 2.13Now 2.09 -0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Nea Salamis2.132.09-0.04
Draw3.323.22-0.10
Omonia Aradippou3.173.43+0.25

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Nea Salamis and Omonia Aradippou expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.43Nea Salamis
1.01Omonia Aradippou
Total expected goals
2.45
Attack rating (Nea Salamis / Omonia Aradippou)
0.94 / 0.68
Defence rating (Nea Salamis / Omonia Aradippou)
1.23 / 1.04

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Nea Salamis vs Omonia Aradippou score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.9% 7.5% 4.4% 1.5% 0.5% 1 11.1% 13.8% 6.4% 2.2% 0.7% 2 8.9% 9.0% 4.6% 1.5% 0.5% 3 4.2% 4.3% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% 4+ 2.1% 2.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1%

Rows: Nea Salamis goals. Columns: Omonia Aradippou goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Nea Salamis vs Omonia Aradippou goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%
Over 1.5 71%
Over 2.5 44%
Over 3.5 23%
Both teams to score
50%
No goals (0–0)
10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Nea Salamis vs Omonia Aradippou

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Nea Salamis45%2.25
Draw29%3.47
Omonia Aradippou27%3.76
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.544%2.26
Under 2.556%1.80
Both teams to scoreYes50%2.01
No50%1.99
Double chance1X (Nea Salamis or draw)73%1.36
12 (either side)71%1.41
X2 (draw or Omonia Aradippou)55%1.80
Handicap -1Nea Salamis win by 2+23%4.38
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Nea Salamis and Omonia Aradippou recent form

Nea Salamis 1W 1D 4L
Omonia Aradippou 0W 2D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Nea Salamis at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-1
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
2 of 3
  • They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Omonia Aradippou away

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.25
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
  • They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Nea Salamis at home only, Omonia Aradippou away only.

Expected lineups

Nea Salamis lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Alberto Varo
  2. 12 Andreas Dimitrou
  3. 5 Alexandros Michael
  4. 55 Sergio González
  5. 25 Konstantinos Ilia
  6. 6 Georgios Christodoulou
  7. 93 Brahim Konaté
  8. 10 Christos Giousis
  9. 71 Giannis Gerolemou
  10. 7 Samuel Grandsir
  11. 19 Karol Angielski

Bench: Panagiotis Artymatas, Jose Artiles, Darío Poveda, Aldair Baldé, Vasilis Lampropoulos, Andreas Panayiotou Filiotis, Chrysis Evangelou, Braydon Manu, Dániel Kovács, Kyriakos Epifaniou, Jordi Quintillà, Panagiotis Louka

Omonia Aradippou lineup · 3-4-1-2

  1. 12 Živko Živković
  2. 34 Danny
  3. 81 Vernon De Marco
  4. 3 Andreas Christofi
  5. 20 Jairo Izquierdo
  6. 6 Niko Havelka
  7. 8 Achraf El Bouchataoui
  8. 22 Minas Antoniou
  9. 14 Jeremy Van Mullem
  10. 23 Bogdan Petrović
  11. 27 Sebastián Lomónaco

Bench: Gabriel Pereira, Michalis Koumouris, Giorgos Pontikos, Helaku Josue Schmidt, Unai García, Andreas Nikolaou, Ange-Freddy Plumain, Mathías González, Andreas Pappoulos, Curtis Makosso, Giorgos Papacharalampous, Konstantinos Panteli

Nea Salamis vs Omonia Aradippou head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Nea Salamis 3 · draws 1 · Omonia Aradippou 2.

Nea SalamisDrawsOmonia Aradippou
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-04-07Omonia Aradippou0-2Nea Salamis1. Division
2025-03-01Nea Salamis2-3Omonia Aradippou1. Division
2024-12-01Omonia Aradippou1-0Nea Salamis1. Division
2022-04-17Nea Salamis2-0Omonia Aradippou2. Division
2021-12-11Omonia Aradippou1-2Nea Salamis2. Division
2020-07-29Nea Salamis0-0Omonia AradippouFriendlies Clubs

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Nea Salamis to win Predicted score 1 – 0 C Bet on Nea Salamis
Our pick: Nea Salamis to win 18+ Bet Now