Apoel Nicosia vs Aris preview
Apoel Nicosia faces Aris with a 49% chance of winning compared to Aris's 27%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.88 for Apoel Nicosia and 1.36 for Aris. There's a strong possibility for Over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams to score at 64%.
However, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty. Apoel Nicosia's recent form shows 2 wins, while Aris has a perfect 6-match winning streak. This could impact the outcome, making it less predictable than the numbers suggest.
Apoel Nicosia vs Aris: model vs market
| Source | Apoel Nicosia | Draw | Aris |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 24% | 27% |
| Market | 47% | 26% | 26% |
| Published | 48% | 26% | 26% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 1.36.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.99, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Apoel Nicosia vs Aris odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Apoel Nicosia, 8 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apoel Nicosia | 2.05 | 1.95 | -0.10 |
| Draw | 3.45 | 3.50 | +0.05 |
| Aris | 3.24 | 3.50 | +0.26 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Apoel Nicosia and Aris expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.24
- Attack rating (Apoel Nicosia / Aris)
- 1.21 / 1.10
- Defence rating (Apoel Nicosia / Aris)
- 1.01 / 1.06
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Apoel Nicosia vs Aris score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Apoel Nicosia goals. Columns: Aris goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Apoel Nicosia vs Aris goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Apoel Nicosia vs Aris
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Apoel Nicosia | 48% | 2.10 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.86 | |
| Aris | 26% | 3.78 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.68 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.56 |
| No | 36% | 2.77 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Apoel Nicosia or draw) | 74% | 1.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Aris) | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Handicap -1 | Apoel Nicosia win by 2+ | 28% | 3.57 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Apoel Nicosia and Aris recent form
Apoel Nicosia
3W 2D 1L
Aris
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Apoel Nicosia at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 4.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Aris away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Apoel Nicosia at home only, Aris away only.
Apoel Nicosia vs Aris head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Apoel Nicosia 3 · draws 0 · Aris 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | Aris | 1-0 | Apoel Nicosia | Cyprus 1. Division |
| 2026-04-05 | Apoel Nicosia | 2-1 | Aris | Cyprus 1. Division |
| 2026-03-15 | Aris | 1-2 | Apoel Nicosia | Cyprus 1. Division |
| 2025-12-07 | Apoel Nicosia | 2-0 | Aris | Cyprus 1. Division |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- AEK Larnaca vs Karmiotissa — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Nea Salamis vs Omonia Aradippou 2026-11-06
- AEL vs Krasava Ypsonas — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Olympiakos vs Apollon Limassol — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Anorthosis v Omonia Nicosia — match page 2026-11-08
- Pafos v Omonia 29is Maiou — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Apoel Nicosia, previous: Omonia Aradippou v Apoel Nicosia analysis
- Aris, previous: Aris vs Anorthosis prediction